Welcome to October!

And right on time, the atmosphere is dusting our peaks in a coat of snow.

During the weekend of October 1-2, most mountains above 10,000 feet measured a dusting to a few inches of fresh snow. And the combination of golden Aspens on the lower slopes and snowcover near and above treeline made for gorgeous sights across the state.

Enough snow fell (or drifted:-) on some mountains to allow a few folks to make turns on their skis. Silverton Mountain is usually the first mountain to post "First turns!!!" of the season, and this weekend, they did it again.

And I noticed at least one other person in northern Colorado post pictures of making turns above treeline, so this wasn't an isolated occurrence of turns being made. Way to get after it!

Forecast for October 3-14 (this week and next week)

Monday, October 3 will be showery (snow at higher elevations, rain at lower elevations) as the weekend storm continues to influence our weather. This storm will move away from Colorado on Monday night.

Tuesday, October 4 to Thursday, October 6 should be drier. There will still be some showers, especially over the southeast and southern mountains while moisture lingers over Colorado.

Friday, October 7 to Tuesday, October 11 will be a mix of drier weather and continued showers. We won't be able to shake moisture oozing into Colorado from the southwest, and this moisture will be the fuel for ongoing showers which will fall as snow across the highest peaks.

Then, between about Wednesday, October 12 and Friday, October 14, there's a chance that a colder storm moving in from the northwest will impact Colorado. 

For the October 12-14 time frame, about 12 of the 51 (~24%) versions of the European model show significant snow across central Colorado.

For the same October 12-14 time frame, about 10 of the 31 (~32%) versions of the American GFS model show significant snow across central Colorado.

Seeing odds of ~25-35% for significant snow about 10 days out is enough to make us watch the middle of next week for the possibility of colder and snowier weather, but the forecast is far from locked in. Stay tuned.

Where is it going to snow?

Our 10-day Powder Finder from October 3-12 highlights some snow across North America with southern Alaska in the crosshairs and a chance for high-elevation snow showers throughout the Rockies and over New England.

When will snowmaking start?

To make snow, the wet-bulb temperature should be around 26°F or colder. We wrote an article about snowmaking, which explains the terms.

For this week, October 3-7, wet-bulb temperatures will be borderline at the highest mountains that typically make snow in October (A-Basin, Copper, Keystone, Loveland). While I am NOT expecting a lot of efficient snowmaking, maybe some of these mountains will fire up their snowmaking systems for brief periods.

Upcoming In-Person Presentations

Join me for in-person presentations this fall (the first one is in just a few days)!

These talks are fun and educational, and often support a local non-profit.

The content of each presentation varies a bit, though usually focuses on what to expect for the upcoming season, some tips and tricks that I use to forecast and chase powder, and behind-the-scenes information about the technology that we use to generate our forecasts. Plus you can complain about botched forecasts, share stories of deep powder, and/or ask your nerdy weather questions - all in person. So c'mon out...like I said, these are fun talks and a way to get excited for the ski season ahead.

• Wed, Oct 5. Boulder. Arc Teryx Store (1600 Pearl St)
  600pm Doors Open
  700pm Presentation
  Must RSVP to attend
  Raffle tickets sold to support SOS Outreach
  
  
• Thu, Oct 13. Boulder. Neptune Mountaineering (633 S Broadway)
  630pm Doors Open
  700pm Short intro weather chat by Joel Gratz
  715pm Full presentation about Alaska skiing by professional skier Chris Davenport
  
  
• Wed, Oct 26. Denver. Bug Theater (3654 Navajo St)
  600pm Doors Open
  700pm Presentation
  Raffle tickets sold to support SOS Outreach
  
  
• Thu, Nov 3. Boulder. Neptune Mountaineering (633 S Broadway)
  630pm Doors Open
  700pm Presentation
  Raffle tickets sold to support SOS Outreach
  
  
• Wed, Nov 9. Golden. Powder7 (880 Brickyard Cir)
  700pm Doors Open
  730pm Presentation
  
  
• Fri, Dec 9. Basalt. 
  Tentative date...standby for confirmation.

Come on out and bring your friends and family so that everyone can get excited about the upcoming season!

Do you ride in the backcountry?

If you ride in the backcountry, I suggest you take about five minutes and read this story.

The author, Devon O'Neil, a local and accomplished outdoor writer, titled it this way:

I Reported on Avalanches for 15 Years. Then I Triggered a Huge One

Please read the story.

New (picture) book

OpenSnow fan and Colorado-based writer and photographer Greg Smith has a new book:

Altitude Adjustment: A Book of ‘Chairlift” Pictures

Greg said, "I call it a labor of joy and a gentle counterpoint to “powder porn,” the posed and often highly produced glory shots that sell skiing. My pictures are from the chairlifts, from under the chairs, around the chairs, and even of the chairs and their graphic patterns. That includes the lifties, the parties they stoke, the weather, and even some powder. My aim is to document the inbounds skiing that most schmoes (like me) experience. Most of the pictures come from Monarch, but it also includes scenes from Telluride, CB, Cooper, Breckenridge, and Loveland. Folks tell me the book is a unique look at a common experience."

Please take a look at AltitudeAdjustment.net, where you can learn more, see pictures, link to sample chapters, and even order copies.

Next update

I'll write another update on Friday, October 7 with a look at the forecast for next week when we could see anything from 'nothing' to a colder storm that brings significant snow.

Thanks so much for reading!

JOEL GRATZ