On Wednesday, snow conditions were superb across many areas of Colorado as the final part of the storm dropped low-density, fluffy snow. Here was what it looked like at Wolf Creek with low-density snow on top of thicker snow from earlier in the storm, and about a 40-inch storm total.

Even though the storm was moving away from Colorado on Wednesday, there was enough lingering moisture to produce a combination of partly sunny skies and snow showers. These showers did not produce much accumulation, but they did produce a gorgeous scene as captured by this cam looking at China Bowl at Vail.

Snowpack

Statewide, we are at 124% of the median snowpack as of January 5. Interestingly, that's about the same number as this date last season. However, last season started with very little snow and then only ramped up around late December, and this season offered plentiful snowfall throughout the early season and was near or above the median since about November 1st.

There's no guarantee that our stormy weather will continue throughout the rest of the season, but for now, we're in a good spot!

Coming Up

Thursday should be a dry day with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Friday is when the next storm will move into Colorado, with snow starting Friday morning and ending around Saturday at sunrise.

The latest high-resolution forecast models continue to show snow totals of 4-12 inches. For timing, the best snow in the southern mountains should be during the day on Friday, and the best snow in the central and northern mountains could be Friday's last chair or more likely Saturday's first chair.

Below are three high-resolution forecast models for Colorado. I have reasonably high confidence in this forecast since the models produce similar forecasts yet each model is based on different data.

The temperature on Friday night into Saturday morning looks pretty good for the production of low-density, fluffy snow, so the snow quality on Saturday morning should be light and fun and perhaps a bit deeper than what our forecast shows in the northern and central mountains.

Saturday late morning through Sunday should be dry.

On Monday, we might see snow showers, especially across the northern mountains, but I have low confidence in this part of the forecast, and it appears that any snow that does fall will result in just light accumulations.

The next chance for more significant snowfall will be around Wednesday, January 11 and the storm might linger into the morning of Thursday, January 12. It's still a little too soon to start thinking about the details of this system, so for now, we'll leave the forecast vague. 

Looking further ahead, the mid-January stormy period, starting around January 15-16, is still being shown by all of the longer-range forecast models. This is a stormy period that should impact the western U.S. and the Rockies, but it's far too early to know the exact impact here in Colorado. For now, the best way to look at the forecast for mid-January is to be mildly optimistic about snowfall, and also to be patient as we'll need at least another week until we can start looking for the timing of individual storms and potential snow totals.

Thanks for reading!

Joel Gratz

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains