Tuesday was mostly sunny across Colorado.

Now on Wednesday morning, skies are mostly cloudy across the northern mountains as moisture arrives ahead of the next storm.

The latest forecast data continues to show that a strong yet fast-moving and low-moisture storm will cross Colorado on Wednesday evening. This system will bring intense snow and gusty winds to the northern and central mountains for a couple of hours between Wednesday at sunset and Wednesday at midnight. I think our ongoing forecast for 2-5 inches is reasonable for the snow that we'll expect to fall through Thursday at sunrise.

Our OpenSnow 3km high-resolution model has been consistent with 2-5 inches across most northern and central mountains with up to about 6 inches in lucky spots.

And the CAIC 2km high-resolution model has increased its totals just a bit, also with 2-5 inch amounts, centered around the I-70 mountains in Summit and Eagle counties.

The main impacts of Wednesday night's storm will be difficult driving conditions for a few hours on Wednesday evening (low visibility) and some low-end powder amounts for Thursday's first chair / first run.

Behind the storm, the forecast for Thursday will be for cold temperatures with a high in the single digits for most of the northern and central mountains. Also, the northern and central mountains should see mostly cloudy skies on Thursday with ongoing snow showers, but I think the dry air in this cold airmass will limit additional snow accumulations to just low amounts and small-sized snowflakes.

Friday through next Tuesday should bring dry weather to most areas of Colorado.

Friday will be sunny with a high of around 30°F.

Saturday will be partly sunny with some clouds filtering the sunshine and temperatures will be warmer with a high in the 30s.

Sunday and Monday will bring more clouds and cooler temperatures with a high in the 20s. There could be a few snow showers during these days, though it appears that most of the snow from the nearby storm will stay to our south.

And on Tuesday, we should again see dry weather throughout the day with a high temperature in the 20s.

Then next Wednesday into Thursday, February 15-16, a storm will move through Colorado and strengthen as passes to our east.

While we are still waiting for all of the forecast models to achieve a consensus about the details of the storm for next Wednesday and Thursday, most are now on board with the general timing of snowfall starting around Tuesday night or Wednesday morning and ending by Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We can see this agreement in the graphic below, with most horizontal lines (each showing one of the 51 versions of the European ensemble model) matching up in the February 15-16 timeframe.

For now, we will watch February 15-16 for potential powder somewhere in Colorado (or many places across Colorado), and after that, there could be another stormy period early during the following week, around the February 20-22 timeframe.

Thanks for reading!

Joel Gratz

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains