Colorado Daily Snow

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By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 1 year ago February 7, 2023

Storm recap, the next storm, and the next storm

Summary

Monday's snowfall was roughly in the range that we expected (3-6+) though there was one high-side outlier. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry, then another fast-moving storm will bring 2-5+ inches on Wednesday night. After that, we'll stay (mostly) dry through the weekend, and then our best chance for snow next week will be on Wednesday, February 15.

Short Term Forecast

Monday morning's snowfall was roughly in the range expected with 2-3 inches in our eastern mountains, 3-6 inches at many northern and central mountains, and about 1 inch in the southern mountains.

There were a few caveats that caught my eye. In the central mountains, 3-4 inches fell on Monday morning after the snow report time of around 5 am, so there was snow that was fresh for first chair yet wasn't reported until a day later (sometimes, that's the best type of fresh snow:-). This happened around Aspen and at Monarch. 

At Steamboat, this is the season that keeps on giving. On Monday morning at 5 am, they received 6 inches a mid-mountain and 8 inches at the summit, which was on the high side of the forecast range but not too surprising. Then during the day on Monday, while the wind direction for most of Colorado was from the northwest (this isn't favorable for Steamboat), the wind direction at Steamboat stayed from the west or west-northwest, which is favorable, and this is (what I think) contributed to another 4 inches at mid-mountain and 7 inches at the summit during the day on Monday. Then another 2 inches accumulated at the summit on Monday night for a storm total of about 17 inches.

Also on Monday night, the wind direction briefly blew from the northeast across the southeastern mountains and this dropped a quick 4 inches at Cuchara, so roughly in line with the most recent forecast leading up to the storm.

The Next Storm

Following dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday, a fast-moving storm will bring snow between Wednesday at sunset and Wednesday at midnight. This system will have strong energy but moisture will be limited due to very cold temperatures, so my snow expectations are on the lower end, maybe 2-5 inches on Wednesday night for most northern and central mountains.

Our OpenSnow 3km high-resolution model paints 3-6 inches across the central and northern mountains…

…while the CAIC 2km high-resolution shows closer to 2-5 inches across the northern and central mountains.

It will be fun to watch this storm evolve and how much snow eventually falls. The strength of the storm means that I believe in the possibility of a few hours of intense snow and 5+ inch totals by Wednesday night, though the short duration of the system and the limited moisture during and behind the storm will likely keep the snow totals below 'powder day' status on Thursday. And speaking of Thursday, it'll be very cold with high temperatures in the single digits at most mountains with some clouds hanging around.

Extended Forecast

Friday and Saturday will be dry, then on Sunday, there will be a chance for a few snow showers, though the most probable outcome is dry weather.

Next week, the brunt of the storm on Monday and Tuesday will stay to our south, but some of the southeastern mountains might get clipped by snow (from a storm tracking to our south), so this will continue to be something to watch.

Then a stronger storm will move through the Rockies on Wednesday into Thursday (February 15-16). The 51 versions of the European ensemble model below show that significant precipitation is likely across our mountains, especially around Wednesday, February 15.

While we have high confidence that we'll see a storm during the middle of next week, since the storm is still 7+ days away, the details remain uncertain.

Below is the European model's forecast for the storm, with the system moving through in two pieces.

And below is the American model's forecast for the storm, with the system moving through in one piece.

The differences in the maps above are why we try to talk about storms 5+ days away only in generalities since we have little to no confidence in the exact details. 

Thanks for reading!

Joel Gratz

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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