Sunday was mostly sunny with comfortable temperatures that topped out between the mid-20s and the mid-30s.

This week, two storms will bring snow to Colorado and both systems are now visible on the national radar image.

The storm that will bring snow to Colorado on Monday and Monday night is swirling over southern California and western Arizona in the lower-left of the image. And the storm that will bring snow to Colorado from Tuesday through Wednesday is in the upper-left of the image over the state of Washington.

Total Snow

First, let's take a look at the total snowfall forecast from Monday morning through Wednesday night. A multi-model blend shows 2-3 feet of snow over the far southern and southeastern mountains, 8-20 inches over the central and eastern areas, and then generally 4-10 inches in the area around and north of I-70.

For a different perspective, the two models below are our OpenSnow high-resolution models, and each version is run with different input data. The difference between the models is mostly the northern extent of the deepest snow with version #1 bringing more snow to more of the northern mountains while version #2 shifts the storm to the south with much less snow for areas in the northern 1/3rd of Colorado. 

Storm Timing

Tracking snow on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be complicated as we'll be dealing with two storms and changing wind directions plus a low-confidence forecast for the track of the storm energy. I think our best chances for the most snow will be Monday night into Tuesday morning, then again from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. The deepest powder day of the week will likely be on Wednesday.

To break it down further…

On Monday, we'll see snow showers increase from south to north.

On Monday night, steady snow should fall over the southern mountains and some central and northern mountains. This is when a surge of moisture will move into Colorado. Sometimes these surges of moisture can produce surprisingly high snow amounts, but also, sometimes weather forecast models can get too excited by all of this moisture and forecast more snow than actually falls.

On Tuesday, there could be morning powder from the storm on Monday night, then we might see a bit of a lull in the snow in the morning, then snow could ramp up again during the midday and afternoon hours.

On Tuesday night, the snow should be steady to intense across the southern and central mountains and maybe as far north as about I-70.

On Wednesday, the most snow should transition to areas near and east of the divide from near and south of I-70 as the wind direction blows from the east and northeast.

On Wednesday night, the snow will wind down with maybe light accumulations after sunset.

Overall

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are full of potential though my confidence in the forecast details is medium at best. I expect a lot of surprises and also a lot of snow, especially in the southern half and the southeastern mountains of Colorado, and southward into New Mexico. Again, I think that Wednesday will likely be the deepest day of the week.

Behind the Monday-to-Wednesday snowfall, we'll see dry weather from Thursday, February 16 to Saturday, February 18.

Then starting around Sunday, February 19, and through about Monday, February 27, multiple storms should move through the western U.S. and the Rockies and this should translate into multiple snowfall chances for us here in Colorado.

The 7-15 day forecast above is somewhat similar to the 7-15 day forecast one week ago when we were looking ahead to the high storm chances during this current week. The longer-range forecast models cannot get the forecast details correct, but often they are in the ballpark when it comes to accurately predicting the general weather pattern, so I am looking forward to seeing how our snow chances come together for next week.

Thanks for reading!

Joel Gratz

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains