Colorado Daily Snow
By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 14 days ago February 12, 2024
Sunday brought sunny and dry weather and was the end of a stormy week. Looking ahead, most mountains will be mostly dry through Thursday, then we should see a storm on Friday, drier weather on Saturday, and then storms are possible any time between Sunday, February 18 and Sunday, February 25.
Short Term Forecast
Our statewide snowpack has been below the median for nearly the entire season, but recent storm cycles have pushed us very close to normal for this date.
Following last week's storm cycle, the latest snowpack graphic shows us at 96% of the median across the state. This graphic was generated from data from about 100 SNOTEL weather stations.
Geographically, all river basins are roughly equal in terms of % of normal snowpack - we range from 92%-102% of normal across the state.
And looking across the western U.S., we are in a lucky zone with close to average snowpack. Other locations with near or above-average snowpack include New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, most of Nevada, southern Idaho, and eastern Oregon. Generally, the farther north you go, the lower the numbers become.
Monday and Tuesday should be dry and partly sunny. Storms to our north will push clouds over Colorado at times, but I think most of these clouds will not bring precipitation, and the high temperature each day will be in the 20s.
Wednesday or Wednesday night should bring a period of snow to the far northern mountains, near and north of I-70. I think accumulations will be light. High temperatures will again be in the 20s.
On Thursday and Friday, one of the northern storms will sag south into Colorado and should bring snow to most northern and central mountains with a few flakes touching the southern mountains as well. While I have low confidence in the details, I think the best chance for snow will be between Thursday night and Saturday morning, so Friday could offer the most new snow this week, and snowfall amounts could be anything from a dusting to maybe 3-6+ inches depending on the exact track of the storm.
Saturday will likely be dry as we will be between storms.
Then from Sunday, February 18 to about Sunday, February 25, multiple storms may track from the southwest and west-southwest into Colorado and could bring us snow during any of these days. There is still very little consistency in the 7-14-day forecast models, so I cannot pin down which days will have the highest chance for snow.
Finally, looking far ahead, it appears that there will be another storm over the Rockies during the final week of February, sometime around Sunday, February 25 through at least Tuesday, February 27.
Description: The graphic above shows 51 versions of the European EPS ensemble model (top) on the y-axis (vertical) and 15 days from left to right on the x-axis (horizontal). Each colored rectangle shows a chance for precipitation, with grey equaling little precipitation, green equaling light precipitation, and blues and oranges showing significant precipitation. The more the colors are aligned vertically, the higher the confidence in the forecast.
I am not sure if any of the storms in the next 15 days will bring a lot of snow or just moderate refreshes, but at least the upshot is that the weather pattern will be active across the west with multiple chances for more snow here in Colorado.
My next update will be Tuesday morning.
Thanks for reading!
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