Summary

Snow will fall heavily from Friday through Saturday for most mountains, so Saturday should be a good powder day. The snow should continue through Sunday midday for areas east of the divide and in southern Colorado, so a Sunday powder day is likely for these areas as well. Then snow showers will bring additional accumulations mostly to the southern mountains on Monday and Tuesday. The second half of next week should be dry, but winter isn’t over as additional storms are likely during the week of April 25-29 and again during the first week of May.

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Details

We’ve been talking about this storm for over one week and it’s nice to finally see it arrive and the snow begin to fall across the mountains of Colorado.

On Thursday night the first band of snow did in fact stay west of Vail Pass and near and north of I-70. This means that the only mountains affected were Powderhorn and Steamboat. At Steamboat, the summit snow stake shows that about 6-8 inches fell in roughly 6-8 hours from late Thursday night through Friday morning. This is an example of the what we will likely see during the rest of this storm in other areas around Colorado: The combination of abundant moisture and waves of energy will create bursts of heavy snow that could bring 1-2 inch-per-hour accumulations when all factors align.

Now on Friday morning we’re starting to see the snow develop over most mountains. The radar image at about 9am shows the band of snow in northwest Colorado that brought the quick accumulations to Steamboat, and it also shows snow developing along and east of the divide.

Source: WeatherTap.com

 

From Friday midday through Friday night I expect that the snow will crank up for all mountains. It’s very likely that Saturday will be a powder day nearly everywhere in Colorado, so hopefully you can make plans to enjoy the fresh snow! Most areas should see 4-8 or 5-10 inches by Saturday morning, and locations near and east of the divide should see over a foot. Also, like we saw in Steamboat, if all factors align, any mountain could see quite a bit of snow in a short amount of time, so there is upside potential to my accumulation forecast.

On Saturday and Saturday night, the focus of the heaviest snow will be near and east of the divide, including the eastern part of the San Juans. The snow should keep cranking for these areas with at least another 5-10 inches. Locations west of the divide will likely see snow as well just with lighter accumulations (2-4+ inches).

On Sunday, the heaviest snow should be moving out of Colorado and we’ll be left with some snow showers for most mountains and perhaps a period of heavier snow in the morning for areas east of the divide. Sunday should be a the tail end of back-to-back powder days with the deepest accumulations near and east of the divide and some leftovers (or more if we’re lucky) for other areas.

From Sunday night through Tuesday the storm will still be near Colorado but it will be weakening. I think snowfall will be light for most areas during this time. However, bouts of heavier snow should continue over the southern mountains as the center of the storm will be closest to this area and should help to initiate localized heavy showers during the midday, afternoon, and evening hours.

Total snowfall is going to be impressive with at least 10-15 inches for most mountains and 30-45 inches near and especially east of the divide. This total snowfall map is similar to what I posted on Thursday except that it extends another 24 hours, out to 12-noon on Monday. Again, look at this map with a bit of fuzzy vision as I don’t think it’ll be exactly correct down to the mile, but the general snow ranges of 10-15 inches across the state and 30-45 inches east of the divide seem correct to me.

Source: CAIC

 

After this storm moves on, we’ll have dry weather on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Then we could see one or two storms between Sunday April 24th and Friday April 29th, and then we could get yet another storm during the first week of May. This late-season action aligns nicely with the El Nino forecast we talked about at the beginning of the season, which was for storminess to ramp up during March, April, and potentially continue into May.

Enjoy this storm and I hope you can get out for these weekend powder days!

JOEL GRATZ

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)