Summary

Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, and Breckenridge are still open this week, and there could be back-to-back powder mornings for each of these areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then we’ll see dry weather from Wednesday midday through Saturday midday, but the calm skies won’t last for long as snow will likely return (on and off) from Saturday night through all of the following week and into early May.

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Details

Sunday was a drier day for most mountains west of the divide while snow continued to fall during the first half of the day for areas east of the divide. Also, Wolf Creek saw snow start up again around midday and it continued through late evening.

The deepest storm total through Monday morning was 51.3 inches at 8,800 feet in Coal Creek Canyon, which is in the foothills about 10 miles southwest of Boulder. The total amount of precipitation at this location was 3.55 inches, for a snow-to-liquid ratio of 14.5, which is pretty fluffy for a late-season storm! Also, the precipitation total of 3.55 inches was roughly in line with the higher amounts predicted by most models, which was in the 3-4 inch range, so overall I think the models did a pretty good job with this storm.

At the ski areas, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, and Breckenridge are still open this week and here are their storm totals (so far … we’re going to see more snow before the storm is over):

Loveland: 30”

Abasin: 28”

Breckenridge: 26”

Winter Park: 24”

 

While most storms move through Colorado during the course of 12-36 hours, this storm is going to stick with us for about 120 hours, or roughly five days. The snow started on Thursday night in Steamboat, fell heavily for most mountains on Friday, continued heavily east of the divide on Saturday into Sunday, and now on Monday the storm is still spinning directly over Colorado.

Source: WeatherTap.com

 

As the storm continues to spin over Colorado, we’ll continue to see snow through the first half of this week. Colorado, Wyoming, and New Mexico are the only states that will receive significant snow this week.

Source: WxCaster.com

 

In terms of specifics…

Monday will start off with mostly dry but cloudy weather for many areas, and then we’ll see snow showers build and intensify from late afternoon through just past midnight. I put 4-8 inches in the forecast for all of the resorts that are still open, roughly split between Monday late afternoon and Monday night after lifts close. Some models show only an inch or two while others show up to 12 inches during this time. The variation in forecast totals is due to the showery and convective nature of the potential snowfall. A foot isn’t out of the question if a cell stalls and dumps on a particular mountain, though I’d say this is an unlikely scenario. I do have reasonably high confidence that the four open ski areas will get enough snow on Monday evening so that there will be fresh tracks to enjoy on Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday we’ll see a break in the snow for most areas, then another wave will move through on Tuesday night and we should get another 3-6 inches for the northern mountains and parts of the central and southern mountains as well. This means that Wednesday morning will likely be another time to enjoy fresh tracks at the four mountains that remain open.

The snow forecast map from the American GFS model shows good numbers through Wednesday morning. Remember that much of this snow will be showery so accumulations won’t fall evenly across all areas, and my take away from this map is the potential for significant two-day totals … don’t think this storm is over!

Source: WeatherBell.com

 

Wednesday may start out with some lingering flurries, then we’ll see dry weather on Wednesday afternoon, Thursday, Friday, and probably into Saturday.

In the longer range, more storms will hit Colorado from about Saturday night through all of next week and likely into early May. I cannot say right now exactly when and where we’ll see the heaviest snow, but a parade of storms moving toward Colorado from the west-southwest and southwest should keep our weather active. In short, expect more powder days and give thanks that we should have rather full reservoirs to start the summer:-)

JOEL GRATZ

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)