We have been talking about this storm all week. It started out as a weak system, and over the last few days, it became clear that it would be a significant snowmaker with respectable amounts for all mountains.

The first part of the storm on Friday morning and midday will feature warm temperatures and a wind direction from the west-southwest. The temperature will put the snow level around 9,000 feet (higher during times of lighter snow, lower during times of heavier snow). The wind direction from the west-southwest will focus the heavier snow on the central mountains around Crested Butte, Monarch, perhaps Snowmass, and also Wolf Creek in the south. The higher elevations of Summit County (Breckenridge, Loveland, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin) can also do well even though a west-southwest wind is not ideal.

The second part of the storm on Friday afternoon and evening will feature a cold front, a narrow band of intense snow, and rapidly falling temperatures. When the cold front hits, you'll know. Snow will come down at 1-2 inches per hour, with up to 4 inches in an hour in some spots. Winds will be gusty. Temperatures will plummet. Visibility will drop to a couple hundred feet. This is the time when some roads may close.

Here is my best estimate about when this intense band of snow should hit.

Steamboat: 2-3pm

I-70 corridor: 4-5pm

Central mountains: 5-6pm

Southern mountains: 7-8pm

The graphics below are from the CAIC WRF 2.5km super high-resolution model (the normal high-resolution model from the CAIC WRF is at 4.0km).

Notice that at Copper (top image) in the northern mountains, the snow amounts during the time of west-southwest winds are lower with 3-4 inches accumulating by noon. Then the cold front hits around 5-6 pm with 2 inches of snow in an hour plus another few inches after the front.

At Crested Butte (center image) in the central mountains, the snow amounts during the time of west-southwest winds are higher with 9 inches accumulating by noon. The cold front hits around 6-7pm.

And at Wolf Creek (lower image) in the southern mountains, the snow amounts ramp up around midday during the time of southwest winds, and the cold front isn't a big player.

This super high-resolution model will not be exactly right at all locations, but it does capture some of the trends that I've seen over the years when we get a moist wind direction from the west-southwest. It'll fun to look back in two days to see how the forecast compared to the actual totals.

Most mountains should receive 6-12 inches from the storm, with a few spots perhaps getting to 15 inches. This will be a fun storm to watch as it will have something for all mountains in Colorado. A true equal-opportunity storm. I like it.

If you want to ski pow, Friday midday/afternoon and especially Saturday morning are your best bet. There is not a whole lot of open terrain right now. Enjoy what you can find, and if you head into the backcountry, remember to check the avalanche forecast first. It's early season but that doesn't mean the backcountry is risk-free.

I am keeping an eye on two weak systems. One will be on Tuesday, November 21st and another on Friday, November 24th. Neither storm appears to be that strong, but I said the same thing one week ago about today's storm, so perhaps we'll get lucky and one or both of these storms will come in stronger than expected.

Overall, we could use (a lot) more snow, and while the 7-10 day forecast doesn't promise much, the longer-range models hint at a more active storm track as we get closer to early December. I am not panicking. Stay patient.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Colorado Forecast Page → https://opensnow.com/state/co
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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains