Over the last few days, the models have continued a westerly trend with this Nordweststau storm. This trend puts a larger part of the Alps in the path of the storm and brings even more moisture to the Austrian Alps. While this storm will produce massive snow totals, temperatures won't be particularly cold and winds will be quite strong. 

First, let's check out the trend of the upper-level storm track over the last few days. The westerly trend during this short period is substantial and has increased my confidence in a strong storm. The other models have exhibited a similar shift during this timeframe. 

With the jet stream coming from the northwest, and no atmospheric rivers involved, we don't have to worry about temperatures rising too much. It will be cold enough for all snow at the Austrian resorts (snow levels ~ 1200m), and mostly snow in Switzerland and France (snow levels ~ 1500m). The snow will be medium density for the most part, although at upper elevations it may feel even heavier than that.

Winds will impact upper mountain lifts on Friday and Saturday and certainly affect the sow quality too. Mid and lower elevations will of course escape the worst of these winds, but ridges above 2400m will likely gust in the 90 - 130 km/h range. Overall, the marginal temperatures and strong winds are not the best recipe for great snow quality.

Nevertheless, a lot of moisture is headed to the Alps. Let's take a look at the total precipitation forecast. We now have good model agreement on 100mm of precipitation for much of the Austrian Alps, 40 - 80 mm in the Swiss Alps, and 25 - 50 mm in the French Alps. This storm is packing a punch. 

Snow totals will be impressive as well, even with modest snow-to-liquid ratios. This will be a multi-day event with a prolonged period of very heavy snowfall. As mentioned, the Austrian Alps are in the bullseye. The Vorarlberg, Tirol, and Salzberg regions will get buried, with a whopping .75 - 1.5 m at mid and upper elevations between Thursday and Sunday. Much of the northern side of the Swiss Alps should see .5 - 1 m of snow from this storm, while the northern French Alps can expect 25 - 50 cms. 

Check out the latest snowfall forecast from the European model.

We still have a few more days to fine-tune these details. I will have a day-by-day breakdown of totals in tomorrow's post. 

More storms are showing up in the extended forecast, but the models do not agree on the track and timing. The storm track will be to the north of the Alps, and it's unclear when the next one of these storms will drop far enough south to impact the Alps or Pyrenees. The majority of the models keep the storms north of the Alps until the end of the month.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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