Fortunately, there has been some advancement since yesterday's update. It appears that neither the eastern nor western storm tracks are emerging as the likely result. Instead, the models have started to align toward a path that lies between these two options. This middle-ground route had been considered a few days ago, but until last night, the models had been fluctuating between the two opposing storm tracks.

If we are getting even more particular, the latest guidance brings the storm a bit closer to the westerly track, but there still remain key differences between the two scenarios.

The more westerly track would bring significant totals to a wide section of the northern Alps. The more easterly track (though much less easterly than what was possible yesterday), would bring a solid storm mainly for the eastern Alps, with the deepest snow in the Austrian Alps. With this storm just three days away, the models are still producing significant differences in the snow totals and the extent of the heavy snow.

Before we get to the main event later in the week, there will be some snow showers from Tuesday night through Wednesday night across the northern Alps. This storm will stay well to the north of the Alps, so the dynamics and moisture will be limited. Expect 5 - 10 cms in the Swiss and western Austrian Alps, with < 5 cms elsewhere in the northern Alps.

Given the model discrepancies that still remain, the greatest confidence for significant snow is in the central Austrian Alps. Since the majority of models show similar results as the American, I will show that snow forecast below.

This model and most of the others has heavy snowfall in the eastern Alps and very little snow elsewhere. The European model, even as of last night, was showing these huge snow totals across most of the northern Alps.

So while I think the best chance for significant snow (30 - 60 + cms) is still the central and eastern Austrian Alps, I still cannot rule out a more widespread significant snowfall. It is worth mentioning too that this storm has a ripping jet stream due to the contrast between the strong high pressure over the Atlantic and the deep low pressure responsible for this storm over northern Europe. Wherever the heaviest snow falls, the winds will be very strong, and likely impact lift operations. 

As has been the case for more than three days, I will be watching every run from every model to try and get a better hold on this. 

After the late-week storm wraps up on Sunday, most models have the storm track shifting to the north for the foreseeable future. One model does bring storms very close to the eastern Alps, but right now it's still an outlier.  I will keep an eye on this period (Tue 12/26 - Thu 12/28) to see if there are any changes.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

Gift Powder This Holiday Season

Looking for a last-minute gift idea?

Be a powder hero and give the gift of OpenSnow by sharing an All-Access Group subscription with three friends or family members.

The Group subscription allows you to share your All-Access benefits with 3 friends or family members, with each member having their own login, favorite locations list, snow alerts, etc. for $39.99 per year.

Details → Group Subscription