There's not a whole lot to add from yesterday's post. Significant model discrepancy remains for this week's storm. I want to chase this storm if the snowier scenario plays out, but all the current disagreement is making this a difficult decision. 

The majority of models favor a more easterly track, with limited impacts across most of the Alps except in eastern Austria, where a decent snow event would be likely. The European model, however, brings the storm, and cold air, much farther west. This would bring huge snow totals to a large portion of the northern Alps later this week. We will have to give this more time, and see whether the majority of models cave to the European, or vice versa, or perhaps some middle ground.

I will compare a recent American and European model run to illustrate the model divergence. Below we have the upper-level setup from the American model on the left and the European on the right. You can see the American model has the storm north and east of the Alps, while the European model brings the storm right over the central/eastern Alps.

I zoomed in further in the figure below to show this crucial difference more clearly.

The difference in the location of the upper-level low-pressure system is striking, and the impacts are no less dramatic. We still have a few more days before this storm is supposed to start, around Thursday, so let's hope the models get together and decide to compromise a bit.

There are more storms lined up after this, but right now the track looks a bit north of the Alps. Some ensemble runs have them dropping further south/west, but it looks like a similar battle regarding just how much. I will keep an eye on those as well and hopefully get some additional clarity soon.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow