The forecast remains on track for our return to active weather in the Alps this week. A solid storm will deliver a nice powder day on Friday and will be followed by at least one more storm. After that, the models show major differences in the medium range. 

The current dry stretch comes to an end on Thursday as a fast-moving upper-level low moves in from the northwest. The northern French, Swiss, and western Austrian Alps will be favored with a quick thump of 15 - 30 cm, with locally higher amounts in the west-northwest/northwest favored regions like the Savoie and Haute-Savoie regions of France, the Wallis, Vauld, and Bern regions of Switzerland, where 30 + cm is possible. 

This system will bring cold air into the region, resulting in high-quality, low-density snow, and the winds don’t look too strong either. 

The storm should wind down on Friday as our next system approaches from the west. This storm track favors the French Alps and typically features warmer air, which will also be the case this time. 

Below is the latest snow forecast from the high-resolution WRF model through Saturday.

I am confident another storm will move into the Alps on Saturday. Beyond that detail, it is not clear how the storm will play out. As early as Sunday, the models begin to diverge significantly, and it only gets worse from there. I do think the weekend storm will bring in warmer air, causing snow levels to rise considerably, possibly as high as 2500 m. They should fall again around Monday or Tuesday.

I expect snow with the second wave this weekend but a transition to rain below 2000 m or possibly higher. The latest guidance brings additional storms into the Alps, but the timing and track of these storms are all over the place. Some models have snow levels skyrocketing again, while others keep them quite low with continued snow through the end of the week. At this point all we can do is wait so the models can come into better agreement for the mid and long range.

My next post will be on Friday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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Regions of the Alps