Forecast for Saturday:

A weak storm arriving from the west/northwest is bringing a quick round of snow to the Tetons on Saturday morning. Snow is falling across the area as of late morning, as can be seen on ski resort webcams. It's also nice to see people out on the slopes now that JHMR, Targhee, and Snow King are all open for the season!

Saturday's storm will be a quick-hitter with snow coming to an end by mid-afternoon. I'm expecting 1-3 inches of new snow in the Tetons and a trace to a half-inch in the valley. Colder air is arriving with this storm and high temperatures for the day were already reached on Saturday morning.

Conditions will dry out on Saturday night with lows in the upper single digits to low teens at all elevations.

Forecast for Sunday - Monday:

Conditions will stay dry through Sunday morning, then a strong storm will approach from the west later in the day on Sunday.

This storm has a lot going for it, including good jet stream support, abundant Pacific moisture, and very cold air aloft which will result in high snow-liquid ratios and great-quality powder snow.

Snow will begin on Sunday afternoon with a light refresh for late afternoon skiers, then snowfall will become more widespread and heavier during the overnight hours on Sunday night and will continue through about midday Monday. Terrain-enhanced snow showers will then continue throughout Monday afternoon and into the evening.

Snow Totals:

Snow totals in the Tetons above 8,000 feet will range from 10-20 inches from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Snow-liquid ratios will be around 15:1 so this will be a low-density/powdery snowfall.

For the Jackson Hole Valley, snow totals will range from 3-7 inches, favoring areas west of the Snake River and north of the airport. Snow King will see snowfall in the 3-7 inch range as well.

The snowfall maps below are projections of total snowfall from Saturday morning through Tuesday morning, and include Saturday's light snowfall. Also, keep in mind that this model only assumes a 10:1 snow-liquid ratio, when in reality snow-liquid ratios will be about 15:1.

Teton Pass Travel Conditions:

Saturday's light snowfall will result in snowpacked and icy roads over the pass through Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, travel impacts will remain on the light to moderate side through midday Sunday, followed by worsening conditions on Sunday afternoon and evening as snowfall rates and winds pick up, resulting in reduced visibilities.

Significant travel impacts are expected over the pass and the valleys on Monday morning due to heavy snow accumulations along with strong winds, which will result in areas of blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Conditions will be marginally better on Monday afternoon, with more noticeable improvement expected Tuesday.

On Tuesday, we will see a relative lull but lingering moisture could result in additional light snow showers.

Attention then turns to the next storm (or series of storms) expected sometime in the Wednesday (11/30) to Saturday (12/3) timeframe. Medium range models are in general agreement that we will see some action in this period, but models are in poor agreement regarding the timing of each wave of snow.

Right now, it looks like the highest chance of significant snowfall will be around Thursday (12/1) and Friday (12/2), but this could change.

Temperatures are also expected to trend warmer during this period compared to the previous storm, so the snow will probably not be as dry/powdery, but the potential does exist for heavy amounts.

Looking further out, we could see another storm in the Saturday (12/3) to Monday (12/5) timeframe. Beyond the 5th, condifence in the overall pattern is low, but generally speaking, we could stay fairly unsettld with additional storms possible. Not a bad start to the season at all!

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Sunday (11/27).

ALAN SMITH