Recent Snowfall:

New snow totals on Monday AM range from 4-6 inches in the Tetons and 2-5 inches in the JH Valley, while Teton Valley only saw minimal snowfall. 

Sunday's storm came in fairly disorganized with a few rounds of moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Warm air in the mountains ended up overriding colder air that was trapped in the Jackson Hole Valley and did not scour out until Sunday night.

The new snow ended up being fairly low density (7-9%, or 11:1 to 14:1 snow-liquid ratios) depending on elevation and location.

On Sunday afternoon, temperatures rose into the 20s in the Tetons and mid-30s in Teton Valley, while the JH Valley was stuck in the single digits. On Sunday afternoon, there was a 30-degree temp difference between Jackson and Driggs!

Here are the 24-hour snow totals as of Monday AM:

• 6" - JHMR Raymer Plot
• 6" - Surprise Lake (GTNP)
• 5" - JHMR Rendezvous Bowl
• 5" - Wilson
• 4" - JHMR Mid-Mountain
• 4" - Grand Targhee (Chief Joe Bowl)
• 3" - JHMR Base
• 3" - Jackson
• 3" - Togwotee Pass
• 2" - Snow King
• Trace - Driggs

Forecast for Monday - Tuesday:

The Tetons will be sandwiched in between two storms on Monday and Tuesday – a stronger storm passing to the south and a weaker storm passing to the north. In between these features, we will see a little bit of moisture hanging around both days, which should result in off-and-on snow showers.

Monday-Tuesday snow showers will be orographic (terrain-enhanced) in nature and will favor the higher elevations and western slopes of the Tetons.

Short-range models are struggling to get a handle on this pattern (as they often do in pure orographic snow shower events with limited atmospheric forcing), but I will go with a forecast of 2-5 inches in the Tetons above 8,000 feet from Monday through Tuesday, favoring the Targhee side more so than the Jackson side.

Something to keep in mind – Targhee can occasionally see upside surprises in these patterns.

For both the JH Valley and Teton Valley, I expect any accumulations to be very light, ranging from a dusting to an inch total on Monday-Tuesday.

Colder air has settled into place across the higher elevations (low teens at 9,000 feet), and this will result in low-density snow with snow-liquid ratios of around 15 to 1 (or possibly higher). High temperatures in the valleys will be in the mid/upper 20s on Monday and Tuesday.

Winds will be out of the west/southwest across the upper slopes at JHMR and Targhee with gusts of 30-40 mph at times. 

Forecast for Wednesday - Thursday:

We will see a relative break in the pattern with a mix of sun and clouds, but we'll still have just enough moisture hanging around that I wouldn't rule out some occasional flurries. Temperatures will remain on the cool side (highs in the 20s valley, low teens up high) but I'm not expecting an inversion to set up, except maybe during the early morning hours.

There is general agreement that a more active pattern will set up from Friday (Dec 9) through Tuesday (Dec 13) with more frequent storms approaching along with better snow chances. Models are not in great agreement in terms of the individual storm tracks and how the Tetons will be impacted. At the very least, I like our snow chances overall.

My early sense is that this could be a pattern where we see frequent shots of moderate snow totals over the course of several days that add up nicely over time, rather than just one or two single-day big dumps. But we'll see how things shake out as we get closer. 

From December 14th-20th, I expect the storm door to remain open with temperatures continuing to run below average.

Thanks so much for reading! I'll be traveling on Tuesday, so check back in for my next forecast on Wednesday (Dec 7).

ALAN SMITH