Jackson Hole Daily Snow

Short Term Forecast

Forecast for Tuesday:

A quiet day can be expected, giving us one more chance to catch our breathes before heading back into an active pattern.

While quiet, high-level moisture has arrived in advance of our next storm system, and skies are starting out overcast on Tuesday morning as a result. Mostly cloudy skies can be expected throughout the day, and I wouldn't rule out some flurries, but no meaningful snow accumulations are expected.

Temperatures are starting out cold (near zero) on Tuesday morning, but will warm up on Tuesday afternoon compared to previous days with highs reaching the mid 20s at 9,000 feet and mid/upper 30s in the valleys as milder air arrives from the south.

Ridgetop winds will also be higher on Wednesday out of the southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph.

Forecast for Wednesday to Wednesday Night:

A strong low pressure system will approach the Southern California Coast on Wednesday, and a surge of moisture and energy will reach Jackson Hole from the south later on Wednesday with snow showers beginning on Wednesday afternoon, before picking up in coverage and intensity on Wednesday night.

Temperatures will be milder and snow quality wetter with this wave as highs reach the upper 20s at 9,000 feet on Wednesday afternoon and low 40s in the valleys. Lows on Wednesday night will be in the low 20s at 9,000 feet and low 30s in the valley, with snow-liquid ratios of around 9:1 to 10:1.

Southerly flow will favor the Southern Teton Range including Jackson Hole and Teton Pass as well as the Southern Jackson Hole Valley including Snow King, whereas Targhee and Teton Valley will be less favored. 

Here is my snow forecast for Wednesday through Wednesday night:

• 3-5" - Jackson Hole above 8,000 feet
• 2-4" - Snow King
• 1-2" - Jackson Hole Valley
• 1-2" - Grand Targhee
• TR-0.5" - Teton Valley

We will be right on the northern fringe of the storm track, but a strong jet stream will be working its way into Western Wyoming, so we'll need to keep an eye on this for possible changes to the forecast (by tomorrow morning) just in case the storm track inches just a bit further north. 

Ridgetop winds will be strongest on Wednesday afternoon and evening out of the south at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph, before decreasing later Wednesday night.

Forecast for Thursday to Thursday Night:

Snow will linger across the southern zones on Thursday morning, then we may see a relative lull in the action from later Thursday through Thursday afternoon with lighter/more intermittent snow showers.

A secondary wave will then arrive from the west on Thursday night with snow showers picking back up again overnight. Winds aloft will become west/northwest overnight which will be more favorable for Targhee compared to Wednesday's wave.

Colder air will also move in early on Thursday and snow quality on Thursday and Thursday night will be drier across the higher elevations (12:1 to 13:1 ratios), while still fairly wet down low.

Here is my snow forecast for Thursday through Thursday night:

• 2-4" - Jackson Hole above 8,000 feet
• 2-4" - Grand Targhee
• 1-2" - Snow King
• TR-1" - Jackson Hole Valley
• TR-1" - Teton Valley

Winds on Thursday will be light to moderate out of the west/southwest during the day and west/northwest on Thursday night.

Forecast for Friday to Friday Night:

Snow showers will continue throughout the day on Friday and into Friday night. This activity will be more orographic in nature, favoring the higher terrain with less snow shower activity for the lower elevations, especially on the east side of the Tetons.

Winds aloft will be out of the west/northwest initially on Friday before turning west/southwest on Friday night. Wind speeds will pick up a bit however on Friday afternoon and Friday night with speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts to 30-40 mph across the higher terrain.

Temperatures will also remain on the colder side on Friday with snow-liquid ratios of around 15:1 across the mid to higher elevations. 

Here is my snow forecast for Friday through Friday night:

• 3-6" - Jackson Hole above 8,000 feet
• 3-6" - Grand Targhee
• 1-2" - Snow King
• TR-1" - Jackson Hole Valley
• TR-1" - Teton Valley

Total Snowfall from Wednesday through Friday:

Three-day snow totals from Wednesday AM through Saturday AM will generally range from 6-15 inches in the Tetons, 4-8 inches at Snow King, and a trace to 4 inches in the valleys. 

Skiing Conditions:

Given the time of year, snow conditions will be variable for much of this event with the best snow quality in protected north-facing terrain, especially up high. I would target Friday for the best conditions during this cycle once snow has been falling for a couple of days, but I also expect conditions to further improve this weekend with heavier snow possible. 

Travel Conditions:

Accumulating snow will begin to impact Teton Pass during the afternoon/evening commute on Wednesday with snowpacked, slushy, and icy roads expected by Thursday morning. Both Thursday and Friday mornings will feature the highest impact conditions with some improvement expected during the afternoons.

Valley roads will be less impacted overall during this event, except for perhaps Thursday morning on the Jackson side where slushy roads will be possible first thing in the morning. 

Extended Forecast

Outlook for Saturday (April 1) to Monday (April 3):

A stronger storm is likely to impact the Tetons during this period as a large trough of low pressure works its way into the Pacific Northwest and a powerful jet stream noses its way toward Northwest Wyoming (still some question marks on exactly where the jet sets up though). 

We could potentially see moderate to heavy snow over multiple days during this cycle, though we're still a bit too far out to get into details. Temperatures also look pretty cold for this time of year, which should result in medium to even low-density snow across the higher terrain.

While snowfall potential looks heavier, we could also end up with very strong winds at times, so that will be another element to keep an eye on as we get closer.

Outlook for April 4th and Beyond:

Another storm or series of storms is possible during the April 4th-7th period with temperatures remaining well below average for early April. After that, I'm seeing some hints that we may finally head into a calmer pattern by the weekend of April 8th-9th (closing weekend at Jackson Hole) and into the week of April 10th. However, we are still far enough out that this could change. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Wednesday (March 29).

ALAN SMITH