Mammoth Daily Snow

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All Systems Go

Summary

One final sunny and calm day on Wednesday before the blizzard arrives on Thursday. Heavy snow and wind all day and into the night. Friday will be sunny with breezes ahead of the next storm that arrives Saturday morning. That storm will last into Sunday afternoon. The following week will be sunny and cool but another chance for snow exists later in the week.

Short Term Forecast

Wednesday Sunny

One last sunny and calm day for us on the mtn. Highs will be in the mid 20's to low 30's on the mtn. Winds will be gusting over the summit 30 - 45 MPH early in the afternoon and might gust a bit higher later in the afternoon out of the Southwest so lift closures are possible. Take the opportunity to get ready for lots of snow in the next 5 days... 

Thursday Quick Hitting Storm 

All systems go for the Thursday storm. Models are in pretty good agreement on precip amounts with the GFS showing about 1.4 inches while the Euro is at 1.7 inches and the WPC is a little higher than that. As I mentioned yesterday it's a cold storm with snow levels dropping down below 3K FT so we'll have 16:1 and even 18:1 snow ratios. 

At 18:1 1.5 inches is 27 inches of snow. So overall the snow forecast hasn't changed from yesterday. Winds will be very strong all day on Thursday. It will be blizzard conditions with the 80+ MPH winds out of the Southwest over the summit and heavy snow. Temps will be in the teens and low 20's with low dipping into the single digits Thursday night for the extra powdery snow. You can expect lift closures of the upper mtn. likely all day. 

My forecast is for 15 - 19 inches of snow at Main Lodge and 20 - 27 inches up top. I'm hopeful that we can squeeze out 2 FT from this storm up top. I'm concerned about the measurements up there given the wind so we'll see how that pans out. Basically my forecast is the same from yesterday bumped up an inch or 2 because of the higher confidence in the models. It will be a strong quick hitting storm that has plenty of moisture and a lot of cold air. 

Friday Break 

Friday should be a clear to mostly clear day. Winds should die down significantly and only be gusting up to 30 MPH across the summit. The powder should be fantastic and the temps will be in the 20's. Enjoy it! 

Saturday - Sunday Storm 

There is still significant model disagreement for the Saturday into Sunday storm. The GFS is showing an additional 3.5 inches of liquid which is double what it's showing or the Thursday storm! The Euro is only trying to double down for us with an additional 1.8 inches. The WPC model this morning is tempering the GFS quite a bit and siding with the Euro. When talking a look at the Ensemble Means of the GFS and Euro the GFS definitely shows more precip but is not going balls to the wall with it like the operational run. 

The 5 day for both models is actually right on the money at 3 inches of liquid. At this time the GFS has little support for the additional 3.5 inches of liquid. I'm expecting closer to 1.5 to 2 inches of additional liquid with that storm. It's going to be a slightly warmer storm with snow levels closer to 5K rather than below 3K FT so the snow to water ratios are going to be closer to 15 - 16:1 during the coldest part of the storm. 

Winds will ramp up again on Saturday afternoon into stay strong into Sunday with gusts in the 60 - 80 MPH range. Temps will be cold again in the teens and low 20's on both days. 

Right now my forecast is going to be 12 - 15 inches of snow at Main Lodge with 18 - 24 inches up on the summit. Slightly lower the first storm because of the slightly warmer temps and less forcing associated with this system. 

Hopefully the Euro comes around to the GFS forecast and I can forecast even more snow. 

Extended Forecast

The GFS shows the snow continuing into Monday morning, December 5th but at this time it's the outlier. We'll just have to see which way these models end up trending. My feeling is the solution will lie somewhere in the middle between the GFS and Euro, which would likely end up just doubling us down for snowfall. 

The rest of the week of December 4th through the following week looks calmer and clearer. We will be cooler than in the last few weeks but should remain dry trough Wednesday. There is a chance another storm might be coming through on Thursday but the details are still hazy. Plenty of snow to get through before then. 

Till the next one... Mike out.