Lake-effect snow showers did not develop as forecasted and a trace of snow fell in the northern Mid-Atlantic. Conditions are still great throughout the region so hit the slopes while you can. Let’s check out Seven Springs Resort in Pennsylvania with 100% of terrain open!

Image courtesy of Seven Springs Resort. 

Dry weather and sunshine will continue for most of the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. High clouds will increase throughout the day ahead of the next storm system moving toward the region. The center of this storm system is tracking well to our north into Canada. A secondary weak storm system from the south will produce a majority of our precipitation. Cold air initially will allow precipitation to begin as snow, sleet, and or freezing rain Friday evening into early Saturday morning. The higher terrain in the southern Mid-Atlantic could squeeze out 1 - 3 inches of snow during Friday evening to Saturday morning before temperatures warm. The higher terrain of the northern to eastern Mid-Atlantic could also pick up 1 - 3 inches of snow Saturday morning. Throughout the region, within a few hours of precipitation onset, your precipitation type will change to scattered rain as warm air moves in from the south. Let’s take a look at the HRRR model’s depiction of precipitation type/intensity and MSLP from 5 pm Friday until 4 pm Saturday. 

GIF courtesy of TropicalTidbits.

Precipitation will remain light overall and any frozen precipitation at the beginning of the storm will have light accumulations. Let’s check out some of these light snow amounts by Saturday evening according to the HRRR model.

Image courtesy of WeatherBell. 

Some resorts look to remain colder than the last few forecasts and light snow could fall before temperatures warm during the day Saturday. This system will track quickly over our area with another storm system developing behind it. This next storm system will bring warmer air into the region. Precipitation will approach from the south and west and bring rain to the central Mid-Atlantic. Other areas could see scattered rain as well. Here is a look at the NAM 12 km model’s depiction of precipitation type/intensity and MSLP from 5 am Sunday until 2 am Monday. 

GIF courtesy of TropicalTidbits.

Behind this storm system, colder weather will move in from the north and develop scattered lake-effect snow showers in the northern Mid-Atlantic. Additional moisture could move into the northern Mid-Atlantic on Monday evening into Tuesday morning bringing more scattered snow showers. Any snow accumulations look to be minimal to light at this point. Other areas of the Mid-Atlantic will start next week dry and seasonal. Expect temperatures in the 30s and 40s further north and 40s and 50s in the south. 

The rest of next week remains very uncertain. The GFS model has dry and warmer weather for the remainder of next week. The ECMWF (Euro) model still has a large storm system developing Wednesday into Friday with rain and snow impacts. It is still too difficult to say which model is right because this potential storm has not impacted the United States. Again, the Euro model’s extended forecast has been more accurate in the past few weeks so I do lean toward a storm affecting us by Wednesday, March 3rd. Here is a look at the Euro model’s depiction of precipitation type/intensity and MSLP from 8 am Wednesday until 2 pm Friday. 

GIF courtesy of WeatherBell. 

This next potential storm could have a major impact on the region. Before I am fully convinced, I need more model runs to show this storm as well as the GFS predicting it. Just a heads up with a lot of uncertainty still in the forecast. 

The pattern looking further into the future is showing more warm weather events across the East coast. This will continue to bring warm temperatures and mixed precipitation events through the second week of March. Here is a look at the Euro model’s upper-level pattern from Sunday, March 7th, until Friday, March 12th. 

GIF courtesy of WeatherBell. The warm colors show areas of warmer weather for the East Coast. 

That’s all for this forecast. Get out on the slopes with plenty of great skiing throughout the Mid-Atlantic. The snowpack is melting but plenty of snow still remains on ski resort slopes. I’ll leave with you with a look at OpenSnow SnowDepth and I’ll have the next forecast out on Sunday morning.

Image courtesy of OpenSnow SnowDepth Map. 

Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.