Saturday will be beautiful and sunny throughout the region as many resorts open up for the first turns of the year. Sunday will see rounds of rain showers and a few backside snow showers Monday morning north and west with minimal snow accumulations. Next week will start dry with a chance of rain on Wednesday. Let’s break it all down…
Short Term Forecast
A beautiful Saturday is expected throughout the region as more resorts open up for the season. Snow is primarily man-made but conditions are carvable and it is decent early-season skiing. Check out Holiday Valley and Snowshoe where people are eager to get back on the slopes.
On Saturday, temperatures will rise into the 40s with light winds making it a great day to get your first or second turns of the year. The next weather system moves into the region Sunday early morning and will bring rounds of rain showers throughout the region.
Rain will begin in the western Mid-Atlantic around 7 am and move east throughout the day. This large swath of precipitation will last about 4 hours. After this first swath of this precipitation, scattered rain showers will affect the region and make it a damp day. There will be dry pockets throughout the region so do not expect a total washout.
Let’s look at these rain showers via the HRRR model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 6 am Sunday, November 27th to 7 am Monday, November 28th. Rain will be moderate at times with total accumulations of 0.10 - 0.75 inches.
A trailing cold front will move through the region early Monday morning, causing a few snow showers in the northern and western Mid-Atlantic. Minimal snow accumulations are expected. Temperatures will stay in the 30s and 40s on Monday with light winds from the northwest.
A quiet start to next week will continue on Tuesday with dry weather and seasonable temperatures. Resorts should be back to making snow overnight as well.
The next storm will move into the region on Wednesday, November 30th, and take a northerly track to the region. Expect widespread rain showers with light to moderate accumulations. Here is a look at the GFS model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 1 am Wednesday, November 30th to 10 am Thursday, December 1st. Rain could be moderate at times with total accumulations of 0.10 - 0.5 inches.
A few backside snow showers are possible but it is too early to say what amount of accumulations are possible.
Quiet and uneventful weather will continue in the region on Thursday, December 2nd, and looking further into the future. Above-average temperatures will move into the region as storms bring snow to the western US.
The next storm system approaches the region by Saturday, December 3rd, but the northerly storm track will continue. More rain showers and warm temperatures will plague the region as we start December. Let’s look at the GFS model’s predicted upper-level pattern from Friday, December 2nd to Thursady, December 8th.
The cool colors show cooler temperatures and favorable conditions for precipitation and the warm colors show warmer temperatures and a northerly storm track for the region.
While we will have a pause in winter for the region, we are early in the season so this is not out of the ordinary. There are still indications of a weather pattern switch toward the second week of December. Stay tuned for more updates and keep holding hope for the long-term pattern switch.
Thanks for reading and I will have the next forecast Monday morning.
Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.
Ski Resorts that are OPEN:
NY: Belleayre, Bristol Mountain, Greek Peak, Holiday Valley, Hunter Mountain, and Windham
PA: Blue Knob and Seven Springs
WV: Snowshoe and Timberline
Projected Opening Dates:
Friday, December 2nd - Jack Frost/Big Boulder (PA)
Saturday, December 3rd - Sawmill (PA)
Saturday, December 10th - Plattekill (NY), Wintergreen (VA)
Friday, December 16th - Liberty Mountain, Roundtop, Whitetail (PA)
Saturday, December 17th - Hidden Valley (PA)
Thursday, December 22nd - Homestead (VA)
Friday, December 23rd - Laurel Mountain (PA)
NY: HoliMont, Holiday Mountain Fun Park, Kissing Bridge, Mount Peter, Peek'n Peak, Swain Resort
NJ: Campgaw and Mountain Creek
PA: Bear Creek, Big Bear, Blue Mountain, Boyce Park, Camelback, Elk Mountain, Montage Mountain, Mount Pleasant, Shawnee, Spring Mountain, Tussey Mountain
WV: Canaan Valley, Whitegrass, and Winterplace