Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

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By Zach Butler, Meteorologist Posted 1 year ago January 25, 2023

Snow changes to rain, backside snow accumulations Thursday/Friday

Summary

Moderate snow Wednesday will change to mixed precipitation and rain by Wednesday evening. Snow totals before the rain begins will be 1-6 inches. Backside cold air on Thursday will develop lake effect and upslope snow showers that will continue through Saturday, making slopes fresh. Another storm brings snow and rain on Sunday. Let’s get into the details…

Short Term Forecast

It has been a good few days of skiing and riding in the Mid-Atlantic with more snow on the way. Check out Hunter Mountain Tuesday afternoon with 8 inches reported from the last storm and 57% of the terrain open.

 

The next storm is here and if you are not taking the morning off, call in sick before rain changes to snow Wednesday afternoon and evening. Moderate to heavy snow will fall Wednesday morning in excess of 1in/hr in a few areas. Snow will change to sleet and freezing rain throughout the day from south to north. Snow will last longer the further north you go. 

Here is a look at the NAM 12 km model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 8 am Wednesday, January 25th through 10 am Friday, January 27th.

The NAM is pretty aggressive with warm air quickly pushing north, so heads up for that changeover earlier in the day, especially in the southern half of the Mid-Atlantic. I would expect 1-6 inches on Wednesday and for the higher end of snow totals to be in northern PA and the Catskills.  

For areas that change precipitation types quickly, a strong cold front will move cold air in on Thursday early morning and develop backside lake effect and upslope snow showers in the northern and western Mid-Atlantic. Snow showers will continue through Friday and some added moisture via a weak storm will continue snow showers on Saturday. 

Here is a look at the Euro model’s snow accumulations from Wednesday through 7 am Saturday. A couple more inches will fall in the northern and western Mid-Atlantic on Saturday afternoon. 

The next storm system will track into the region Sunday evening, January 29th into Monday, January 30th. There is a lot of model uncertainty for this storm's track and how strong it will be.

Extended Forecast

The next storm system on Sunday, January 29th into Monday, January 30th has trended weaker over the last couple of model runs. It is looking like it will track west to east, which means a pretty constant rain-snow line is possible. This would bring light snow accumulations to the northern Mid-Atlantic with mostly rain to the south. 

Here is a look at the Euro (left) and GFS (right) model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity Sunday evening, January 29th. 

The rest of next week will continue to be active with a storm system tracking through the region or slightly to the north around Wednesday, February 1st. There is not much room in the atmosphere for a coastal track to develop. This means more snow and mixed precipitation events to the north and rain further south. Here is a look at the GFS model’s predicted upper-level pattern from Tuesday, January 31st to Thursday, February 2nd. 

We then transition to a storm track through the region, depicted by the barrier between cool (blue) and warm (yellow) colors. 

Thanks for reading and I will have the next forecast Friday morning. 

Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow. 

Announcements

Want to learn more about Nor’easters and coastal storms? Check out this new article here that goes into how they form and what this means for the forecast/slope conditions. 

About Our Forecaster

Zach Butler

Meteorologist

Zach Butler is currently a PhD student in Water Resources Science at Oregon State University. He just finished his master's in Applied Meteorology at Plymouth State University in New Hampshire. Originally from Maryland, he has grown up hiking and skiing up and down the East Coast. When not doing coursework, he enjoys cooking and exploring the pacific northwest on his bike.

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