We’ve got a pretty uneventful upcoming week with a few snow showers on Monday, rain showers Tuesday, and some more rain on Thursday. The only hope for snow in our future might come from a storm system tracking along the coast on Saturday, February 11th. Read on to see what will happen this week…
Short Term Forecast
Sunday felt like a sign of spring with temperatures warming above freezing after our brief arctic air outbreak. Conditions remain solid throughout the region as resorts make it by in this lackluster winter so far. Check out Plattekill Mountain on Sunday afternoon where 95% of the terrain is open.
A few snow showers and flurries will remain in central to western New York and the higher terrain of the western Mid-Atlantic on Monday. It’ll be a dry day for most with snow accumulations around a trace to nothing.
Tuesday & Wednesday
A weak storm will pass to the north and bring some quick moving scattered rain showers Tuesday afternoon. There might be a wet snowflake or mixed precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic but no snow accumulations are expected. Wednesday will be dry for most areas with a few scattered rain showers possible in West Virginia.
The next storm enters Thursday morning and will track well to the west and north of our region. This will bring plenty of warm air and the most consistent rain of the whole week. A few mixed precipitation showers are possible initially in NY but will change to rain pretty quickly. Most rain will clear the region by the afternoon. Here is a look at the GFS model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 7 pm Wednesday, February 8th through 7 am Friday, February 10th.
Friday & Saturday
This is the part of the forecast that gets more interesting. Models continue to show a storm system taking a southerly storm track through the US. The key for this storm to develop and affect our region is the timing with a dip in the jet stream. If the storm can be in line with this dip, it does have a chance to strengthen and bring areas of snow.
The latest model runs show the dip in the jet stream a bit too late, as well as not a very strong dip. This would likely bring some precipitation to the region, but slide the storm off the sea. The coming days will be key to a model agreement on this storm and the jet stream. Here is a look at the Euro (left) and GFS (right) model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity Saturday, February 11th.
Following the brief chance for winter weather, the following week on Monday, February 13th is looking much less optimistic. There are a few chances of storms swinging snow showers to our north for the northern Mid-Atlantic, but elsewhere it is looking minimal. The jet stream is showing a strong signal of shifting to our west and north, which would keep the storm track active, but push warm air into the East Coast.
Here is a look at the Climate Prediction Center’s temperature and precipitation probability from Monday, February 13th to Sunday, February 19th.
Thanks for reading and have a great start to the week. I will have the next update Wednesday morning.
Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.
OpenSnow x Slopes
We just finalized a partnership with Slopes, a very well designed and heavily used ski tracking app. Our forecast is available on their ski resort screens to view as a summary for the next 5 days, with a button/link back to OpenSnow to view the forecast details. Check it out and let us know what you think.