A dry Wednesday will give way to rain on Thursday with total accumulations of 0.1-0.4 inches. A few backside snow showers north and west will add minimal snow accumulations on Friday. The next storm tracks toward the region on Saturday and Sunday. A lot of model uncertainty still remains, but snow accumulations are still possible. Let’s get into the details…
Short Term Forecast
Despite the boring weather of late, skiing and riding conditions throughout the region are still solid with plenty of terrain open. Resorts are still making snow to get coverage on the slopes and make the most out of this winter. Check out Seven Springs on Tuesday afternoon where 94% of the terrain is open.
Wednesday will be dry for most areas with maybe a flurry in New York. Temperatures will stay in the 30s to the north, 40s in the central Mid-Atlantic, and 50s to the south. The next storm will move precipitation in from the west early Thursday morning. Scattered rain showers will push north and east throughout the day. It will not be a washout, with dry pockets here and there.
Here is a look at the NAM 12 km model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 3 am Thursday, February 9th through 7 pm Friday, February 10th.
Backside snow showers will not be impressive on Friday and add a trace of snow to the northern Mid-Atlantic and maybe 1 inch if you are lucky.
A storm system continues to track toward the south on Saturday, February 11th and there continues to be a lot of model uncertainty. This model uncertainty is due to what has driven our winter thus far, which is that storms are moving into an unfavorable part of the atmosphere, which makes it hard for models to predict.
We have seen a few of these storms hang together this winter and give us snow, which is still possible on Saturday and Sunday. If the storm can hang together and the timing of the jet stream dip is in line, snow could develop in parts of the region. This could favor the southern half of the Mid-Atlanitc.
Here is a look at the Euro model's depiction of potential locations of the storm system on Sunday, February 12th
The “L’s” on the map show the potential locations of a storm system.
It is too early to have confidence in this storm track and predict snow accumulations. There is still a possibility that the storm will slide off the sea. Behind this storm system, we turn on spring conditions into next week.
There continues to be growing confidence in warm temperatures next week with a jet stream shifting well to our west and north. This will push well above average temperatures, with low temperatures struggling to get below freezing. Some storms will push through the region with rain in the forecast. A few days should be clear for some early spring skiing turns.
There is some hope toward the end of the extended forecast around Friday and Saturday, February 17th and 18th. A dip in the jet stream could push over the region, which would cool temperatures back down with maybe some snow. Unfortunately, this will be a short dip in the jet stream with more warm temperatures following. Here is a look at the GFS model’s predicted upper-level pattern from Tuesday, February 14th to Saturday, February 18th.
The warm colors show warmer temperatures and a northerly storm track for the region. The cool colors show cooler temperatures and favorable conditions for precipitation.
Thanks for reading and have a great day. I’ll have the next update Thursday morning.
Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.
OpenSnow x Slopes
We just finalized a partnership with Slopes, a very well designed and heavily used ski tracking app. Our forecast is available on their ski resort screens to view as a summary for the next 5 days, with a button/link back to OpenSnow to view the forecast details. Check it out and let us know what you think.