Scattered rain showers are moving through the region on Thursday and will make it a damp day. Not a washout by my definition with some dry pockets here and there. Winds will become gusty (30-50mph) ahead of a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening. This cold front will move through Friday morning and drop temperatures to around freezing in the north. A few lake effect snow showers will develop on Friday, primarily in the northern Mid-Atlantic with a few reaching the western parts as well. 

Here is a look at the NAM model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 3 am Friday, February 9th through 7 am Saturday, February 11th.

Snow showers will not be impressive on Friday but become more widespread Friday night until early Saturday morning. This will add around 1 inch to slopes in New York, maybe 2 inches if you are lucky. Other areas will just see a trace of snow accumulations. Here is a look at the NAM model’s snow accumulations from Friday through Saturday. 

Now to the potential coastal storm on Sunday into Monday, which is gaining momentum. This storm will be tracking toward the region from the southern US and will combine with a dip in the jet stream. The dip in the jet stream in combination with a weak storm in Canada will keep the coastal storm to the south and just off the coast. This storm track will just be enough to give southern areas of the Mid-Atantic some snow. 

There is still a lot of model uncertainty, which could cause the storm to move off the coast with no snow or further intensify the storm to give more snow. Here are some key details of what could go right and what could go wrong.

What could go right

• The storm could strengthen more with the jet stream
• Give snow to areas south of the MD-PA border (heaviest in NC)
• Could track slightly further up the coast into PA and southern NY
• The Euro model below is favorable for snow through NC, VA, and WV (>4in)

The “L’s” on the map show the potential locations of a storm system.

What could go wrong

• The storm could slide off the coast and bring little precipitation to the region
• Still a chance of light snow in the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC but not areas further north (1-3in)
• The GFS model below is what could go wrong

The “L’s” on the map show the potential locations of a storm system.

The wide swath of “L’s” in the Euro and GFS models above show the model uncertainty still regarding this storm system. I still do not have high confidence in either model, besides some bias for the Euro just because it has more snow. The next few days will be key to seeing how the models align for the storm track and intensity, affecting how heavy snow is and how far it extends north and west. 

I will continue to provide daily updates for this weekend's storm potential. The next forecast is Friday! 

Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.

OpenSnow x Slopes

We just finalized a partnership with Slopes, a very well designed and heavily used ski tracking app. Our forecast is available on their ski resort screens to view as a summary for the next 5 days, with a button/link back to OpenSnow to view the forecast details. Check it out and let us know what you think.