A few rain showers affect the region on Wednesday, but it should be a mostly dry day. A storm system moves more moisture in on Thursday and Friday with areas of heavy rain. The western half of the Mid-Atlantic will be a lot wetter than the eastern half. Total rain accumulations approach 0.5in with isolated areas of 1-2 inches by Friday evening with more rain on Saturday. Let’s break it down...
Short Term Forecast
Let’s jump into this forecast with a quick look at our dwindling snowpack over the region. Snow is staying strong where 1-2+ feet fell in last week's Nor’easter, but other areas remain blank, which is a sight for sore eyes this winter. Here is a look at the snow depth on Tuesday, March 21st.
We are in for a tough stretch of weather in the next few days with lots of rain coming. Wednesday will be the driest day for a bit, with only a couple of rain showers in the western Mid-Atlantic. The storm system moves closer on Thursday with scattered rain showers moving west to east throughout the day. There will be heavy downpours but dry pockets on the slopes as well.
More moisture will move in on Friday, but this area of precipitation will be a narrow area of rain through MD, PA, VA, and WV. Areas in NY should stay mostly dry. The center of the storm system finally tracks to the north on Saturday and will bring widespread rain. A weak trailing cold front will develop some backside snow showers Saturday night with minimal snow accumulations.
Here is a look at the GFS model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 11 am Wednesday, March 22nd through 8 pm Saturday, March 25th.
The western half of the Mid-Atlantic will see a lot more rain this week due to the firehose of rain's orientation. These areas of rain will also get blocked a bit by the western edge of the Appalachian Mountains, preventing heavy rain from reaching the eastern half of the Mid-Atlantic. Here is a look at the Euro (left) and GFS (right) model's predicted rain accumulations from Wednesday, March 22nd through Saturday, March 25th.
Following this storm system, Sunday, March 26th will be mostly dry with more storms expected next week.
The active storm track will continue in the extended forecast. The next storm is expected around Monday, March 27th, and Tuesday, March 28th. This storm system has the potential to dip south, which could bring snow to the northern Mid-Atlantic. This gives us some late-season hope in the final days of the season.
There is not a strong signal for a dip in the jet stream between various models, which makes this situation uncertain. There could be an area of precipitation to the south, but any cold air would be in the northern Mid-Atlantic through New England. Let’s look at the Euro model’s predicted upper-level pattern from Monday, March 27th to Thursday, March 30th.
The cool colors show cooler temperatures and favorable conditions for precipitation. There is a brief dip in the jet stream around Tuesday, March 28th, which might be able to bring snow to northern areas.
There are still chances of snow for northern areas in the final days of the season. Thanks for reading this forecast, I will have the next one on Friday.
Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.
Here are some resorts where I’ve been able to keep track of projected closing dates and which ones are still open with no closing date information yet. The incoming rain this week has many of these dates subject to change.
Project Closing Dates:
March 26th - Wisp, MD. Elk Mountain, PA. Sawmill, PA. Shawnee, PA
March 27th - Timberline, WV (subject to change)
April 2nd - Snowshoe, WV. Windham, NY.
April 9th - Holiday Valley, NY.
Resorts that are still open with no closing date announcement yet:
NJ: Mountain creek
NY: Belleayre, Bristol, Buffalo Ski Club, Greek Peak, HoliMont, Hunter, Kissing Bridge, Labrador, Peek’n Peak, Song, Swain
PA: JackFrost/BigBoulder, Blue Mountain, Camelback, Montage Mountain, Seven Springs