Snow quickly moved into Minnesota and western Wisconsin Tuesday morning setting the stage for a powder-filled Tuesday. A narrow and intense band of snow is expected from the Twin Cities up to the western portion of the UP with 4-8+ inches expected on Tuesday. Expect mostly rain for much of Wisconsin, lower Michigan, and eastern UP on Tuesday before a change over to snow for Wednesday is expected.
Short Term Forecast
First, thank you to everyone who has taken the survey so far! For anyone who has not yet taken the survey, a few minutes of your time would be appreciated to help improve the Midwest Daily Snow for season 2!
Tuesday - Thursday:
Snow has quickly moved into the Midwest Tuesday morning with light to moderate snow falling over the resorts in and around the Twin Cities.
Here is a look at the radar from around 6:30 am CDT on Tuesday:
Some of the snow up near Lake Superior was not reaching the ground or only resulting in flurries Tuesday morning but that should quickly change by mid-morning on Tuesday as better moisture and more intense snow rates fill into the area.
The radar image from Tuesday morning is a good table-setter for what will occur all day with rain mainly east of the Twin Cities and snow from southern Minnesota up through western Wisconsin and western portions of the UP. That means the majority of Wisconsin and lower Michigan resorts will see rain, perhaps even a rumble of thunder and sleet.
You may have also noticed that the track of this storm is a little further north, so the HRRR was onto something late Monday evening for where the heaviest snow sets up today. Here is an animation of the forecast radar from the HRRR from Tuesday morning to late afternoon:
How much snow will fall during the day on Tuesday? Here is what the OpenSnow Multi-model expects:
A few things to note, I think it is handling things fairly well for that swath of 4-8 inches from the Twin Cities up to the Ironwood, Michigan region. However, I think it is underestimating the amounts at a few resorts. Below are amounts I think are more likely to occur than what is shown above:
- Powder Ridge, closer to 1-3
- Spirit Mtn, closer to 2-4
- Ripley and Bohemia will flirt with the rain and snow line all day on Tuesday. If they can stay all snow, they likely pickup 2-4
- Coffee Mill will be right on the edge all day as well, 3-5 might be a little high as I think some warmer air will sneak in this morning resulting in a mix of rain/snow/sleet which would lower amounts closer to 2-3
Tuesday night, colder air will get pulled into the storm bringing additional snow as well as kicking up some lake effect snow off of Lake Superior. I expect the lake effect to continue off and on in the UP all day Wednesday with another 2-6 inches expected.
The colder air will take a little longer to reach the upper portion of lower Michigan, but once it does I expect lake effect snow showers to bring 1-3 inches during the day on Wednesday. The resorts in the Traverse City region will likely pick up 2-5 inches from Wednesday into Thursday morning which will be a welcome sight after all of the rain the past few days.
Here is a peek at total snowfall from Tuesday morning to Thursday morning:
The extended forecast has some promise to keep the active pattern going. After a brief warmup on Friday, the models suggest another storm possible for Saturday and yet another one around December 6th.
I will fill in more details on Wednesday's update, but at a first glance, here is where the ECMWF favors the snow to fall with those respective storms:
December 6 time frame: