Most recent model data streaming in has shifted everything a little bit further north and suggested a more intense narrow band of snow is possible. The main winners are still expected to be from the Twin Cities up to the western UP on Tuesday. Rain is still likely for much of Wisconsin and lower Michigan Tuesday.
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I'm providing a brief update this evening as the latest model and observation data suggest this system is likely to be a little further north than originally anticipated. In addition, we're getting a little better clarity on where the strongest frontogenesis (increasing horizontal temperature gradient) will occur which drives who receives the narrow intense snow band.
I feel moderately confident that this snow band will reach from Mount Kato, towards Afton, and up to Whitecap on Tuesday. I will not be surprised if a few locations pick up closer to 6+ versus the 2-6" range I had shown in an earlier forecast.
As a result, here are the latest amounts expected Tuesday during the day:
The one caveat in this forecast is the HRRR, a forecast model I usually trust quite a lot has the snow band significantly further north and west than the consensus of the models. The model is either out to lunch or ahead of the others with this storm. If the HRRR is accurate, Spirit Mountain would get 3-5 inches of snow - something to watch for those that live in Duluth and are itchy for some turns!
I will have a full forecast Tuesday morning with updates on this storm along with a full extended forecast.