I did not go quite high enough on the expected snowfall from Tuesday-Wednesday morning! Not only were snow ratios higher than expected, but we also were able to squeeze an extra .1 of an inch of liquid from the atmosphere on Tuesday. This resulted in widespread 1-4 inches when I was generally thinking 1-2 with the occasional 3 inches in spots. 

A bit of science:

Snow ratios are critical to getting the snow forecast correct, as you can have the correct liquid-equivalent amount and still get the snow depth incorrect. For example, if I predict .1" of liquid and think the snow ratio will be 15:1 that results in 1.5" of snow.

However, if it ends up being closer to 20:1, then 2" of snow falls but it still ends up being .1" of liquid. If you get both wrong, then the forecast really busts. Sometimes meteorologists get lucky and get both wrong and still manage to get the total snow correct, ha! 

Today's snow:

For Tuesday, snow ratios ranged from around 14:1 to 24:1, especially during the afternoon when some locations picked up a bonus inch or so. 

Here is an initial snowfall report for the past 12 hours, Tuesday AM to Tuesday PM:

Snow was still falling up near Lutsen Tuesday evening so we'll have to check for reports on Wednesday morning to see how they fared. 

Wednesday

After a brief lull in the action, more snow will move into the Midwest early in the morning on Wednesday and bring a swath of 1-3 inches from north of the Twin Cities east into Wisconsin and the UP. As this system exits, winds will swing around out of the north and continue the lake effect snow showers in the UP into Thursday morning. 

With a slight shift southward in the heaviest snowfall on Wednesday, I've increased the amounts expected. This is especially true for the locations near Ironwood, Michigan due to a more favorable setup for lake effect and lake-enhanced snow. I'm now thinking those areas will pick up another 2-5 inches Wednesday into Thursday morning. 

Another reason I am increasing amounts: there is enough moisture with this next system and cold air in place where I expect snow ratios to be in the 14-20:1 range. That means the snow that falls will be on the fluffier/lighter side.

Friday's looming powder potential:

The GFS and ECMWF are coming into better agreement. Here are the forecast precipitation types for Friday morning: 

A full update on this storm will be published Wednesday morning. 

-Croix

First, thank you to everyone who has taken the survey so far! I really appreciate everyone who has taken the time to do so - the feedback will help improve my second season. I plan to let it run until Wednesday, December 7th, and then will summarize the results and share any adjustments I make moving forward. 

For anyone who has not yet taken the survey, a few minutes of your time would be appreciated to help improve the Midwest Daily Snow for season 2!