Estimated and Reported Snowfall: 

Overall, it has been pretty quiet the past 36 hours in the Midwest with mainly flurries and a dusting seen on Monday. A few inches did fall in the tip of the Keweenaw and have seen reports of folks scoring powder recently! There were also some snow showers in portions of lower Michigan with 1-3 inches being reported. 

EDIT: 8 am CDT - NOHRSC updated their data and it now includes the lower Michigan snowfall! 

Tuesday-Thursday:

Both Tuesday and Wednesday will bring chances of light snow, mainly across northeast Minnesota over into the UP. Snowfall amounts will generally be a dusting to 4 inches by Wednesday evening. 

A few light rain and snow showers are possible in southern Wisconsin over into lower Michigan on Tuesday as well with only a dusting to a half inch of snow possible. 

The promising pattern for lake effect snow has fizzled out for this week as models keep the Midwest in a westerly flow pattern with milder temperatures than originally expected. This slight difference is all it takes to go from on-and-off lake effect snow showers all week to only a few inches expected. Wednesday night could result in some extra lake effect in the UP with northerly winds off of Lake Superior but no major accumulations are expected. 

The good news is we will keep getting well below freezing during the overnight hours and locations should be able to make snow at nearly full capacity for all of the Midwest. Many locations have temporarily closed during the week so they can focus on snowmaking operations and get ahead while the conditions are favorable.

Some locations such as Granite Peak, for example, have announced daily operations starting this weekend. I expect many to follow in the coming days as we see additional terrain opening up. 

Here is the expected snowfall from Tuesday morning to Wednesday evening: 

Thursday will be the lull before the next chance of widespread snow likely arrives Friday. 

Friday:

Though the ECMWF and GFS Ensembles currently disagree, it is worth discussing the potential for a powder day in southern Wisconsin on Friday. The ECMWF ensemble is bullish on widespread rain and snow for southern Wisconsin into southern portions of lower Michigan.

The GFS on the other hand is less bullish and has a less organized system that is also warmer.  

Here is just how much they disagree: ECMWF ensemble has almost all of southern Wisconsin seeing a better than 80% chance of over 1" and better than 70% of seeing over 3" for a large area. Compare that to the GFS Ensemble which shows at most a 20% chance of more than 1" and nearly 0% chance of over 3". 

Probability of greater than 1":

Probability of greater than 3":

What is driving this difference? The ECMWF ensembles are colder than the GFS ensembles. Both have precipitation on Friday, but the GFS ensemble favors a warmer solution and more rain while the ECMWF Ensemble favors more to fall as snow. 

At this time I'd lean towards trusting the ECMWF ensemble solution a little more but will not be surprised if a few locations see rain or a mix with this system and others receive significant snowfall. 

As I discussed on Sunday, there was the potential for yet another system to pay us a visit early next week and the models have come to a little better agreement that sometime around Tuesday, December 12th is worth monitoring. 

Here is the probability of seeing greater than 3" - it's impressive to see 30-50% from both the ECMWF and GFS ensembles a week out!

A lot can and will change, the models could be out to lunch with this next chance of widespread snow but this is now 2 days in a row this window shows some promise. 

The early look at the finer details does suggest the warm side of this storm would bring a mix of rain and snow, something to monitor. 

With the chance of a bigger snowfall on Friday, expect daily updates for the rest of this week. 

-Croix

First, thank you to everyone who has taken the survey so far! I really appreciate everyone who has taken the time to do so - the feedback will help improve my second season. I plan to let it run until Wednesday, December 7th, and then will summarize the results and share any adjustments I make moving forward. 

For anyone who has not yet taken the survey, a few minutes of your time would be appreciated to help improve the Midwest Daily Snow for season 2!