Midwest Daily Snow

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By Croix Christenson, Meteorologist Posted 1 month ago February 26, 2024

Mild On Monday Before Rain and Snow Returns

Summary

We'll see very mild temps Monday and Tuesday before much colder air returns briefly for the middle of the week. The transition from mild to colder will be accompanied by rain and snow, with some upside of powder turns possible. The colder temps will be short-lived, with mild air returning later this week.

Short Term Forecast

General Observations:

  • I expect to see announcements over the next few weeks of resorts closing for the season due to warm temps and rain at times
  • Over the next week, we have one solid chance of widespread snow sandwiched between two very mild stretches with highs reaching the 40s to 60s for much of the Midwest
  • Impacts on operations likely at times due to warm temps/rain

Snow Chances Monday, Feb. 26 to Sunday, March 3

North Shore Lake Superior

Monday through Wednesday will be an interesting period, with some light snow falling Monday morning in northeast Minnesota before southerly winds warm the US resorts into the 40s and 50s by Monday afternoon. Thunder Bay resorts will remain a little colder with periods of snow Monday and again Tuesday/Tuesday night. For the US resorts, it looks like this will be a light snow event Tuesday/Tuesday night, with a dusting to ~2" or so. The heaviest snow misses the resorts to the north in portions of Ontario. 

After the snow exits, Wednesday will feel more like winter before we begin to warm up once again with highs in the 40s and 50s later this week. 

South Shore Lake Superior

  • 40s and 50s are likely in the UP on Monday as warm air surges north thanks to south winds

Tuesday night we see colder air return along with periods of snow for the UP resorts, with some lake effect snow kicking off on Wednesday as the colder air settles into the region. Wednesday remains the best day to enjoy some fresh snow with soft turns likely though could be crusty underneath depending on when resorts groom, with the upside for a a few powder turns.

Searchmont will initially start as rain or a rain/snow mix before changing to all snow and eventually a little bit of lake effect snow Tuesday PM into Wednesday (Wednesday best shot at some turns in fresh snow). 

The cold and snow will be short lived, with warmer temps returning later this week and into the weekend. 

Twin Cities Region

  • Warm temps peaking on Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s
  • We have a pretty good agreement among the models that locations just see a little bit of light snow Tuesday PM (dusting to 1", maybe a resort gets lucky and sees over 1")
  • One cold day on Wednesday with 40s to 60s likely Thursday to Sunday
  • Only light precip chances Thursday through Sunday (if any at all)

Central and Southern Wisconsin

  • Monday & Tuesday: Highs in the 50s and 60s
    • Some resorts are closing for a day or two to save their snow
  • Rain/snow chances increase from Tuesday PM into Wednesday
    • Some rain is possible (models have trended less rain) for southern resorts followed by some light snow (dusting to 2")
    • Light Rain/snow mix for Granite Peak with the upside of an inch or two

Northern Lower Michigan

  • 40s and 50s on Monday with 50s and 60s on Tuesday
  • Still on track for rain chances to increase Tuesday/Tuesday night with snow by Wednesday (For now thinking 1-4", possibly a bit more depending on lake effect snow?)

  • Mild temps return by next weekend after a brief cool down in the middle of the week
  • More rain is possible the first full week of March

Southern Lower Michigan

  • Monday: Highs in the 50s to low 60s
  • Tuesday: 60s for most if not all of the resorts?
  • Rain chances increase on Tuesday/Tuesday night
    • Some light snow/snow showers on Wednesday
  • Impacts on operations likely due to warm temps/rain

Extended Forecast

Fantasy Land: Monday, March 4 to Sunday, March 10

  • Models lean mild overall, with a few cooler days possible
    • Confidence: Medium
  • Models have not budged that we likely see a larger, complex system bring rain and snow (once again the threat of more rain than we would prefer)
    • Timing: March 3rd-6th is roughly the time frame to monitor 
    • Confidence: Low to Medium
  • The first half of March overall looks to remain mild

The next forecast will be posted on Tuesday - thanks for reading!

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About Our Forecaster

Croix Christenson

Meteorologist

Croix grew up in Saint Paul, Minnesota where he developed his passion for the outdoors and snow. He attended the University of Wisconsin-Madison and received his BS and MS in Atmospheric Science. When not working, you will find Croix exploring his Duluth, Minnesota backyard by skiing, mountain biking, fishing, surfing, hiking with his dog Doppler, or just about any activity that gets him outside.

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