Montana Daily Snow

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By Bob Ambrose, Forecaster Posted 2 years ago January 14, 2022

Dry MLK Holiday Weekend / Snow Returns Next Week

Summary

High-pressure will flex its muscle over the Treasure State into the 3-day weekend. This will generally keep the forecast dry with predominantly partly sunny skies (cloudy across NW MT) with temps at or slightly above seasonal averages. An active NW flow develops Monday and looks to bring chances of daily light accumulations for both sides of the Divide into Friday of next week.

Short Term Forecast

WEST of the Continental Divide:

A weak cold front will push through the region Friday bringing mostly clouds but a few stray snow flurries possible as well with no accumulation. Mountain high temps Friday will be slightly cooler ranging from the mid-20’s at Whitefish to near 30 at Lost Trail Pass.

High-pressure extends its stay into Saturday but clouds will be overriding the ridge across NW Montana bringing a very slight chance of snow showers. Areas along and south of I-90 will see a mix of sun and clouds with seasonal temps.

A ridge will develop off the Washington coast setting up a northwest flow starting on Sunday night. This pattern is depicted by the weather models to last well into next week. Sunday will be transitory with clouds and a few snow showers at Whitefish mainly with partly sunny skies elsewhere to the south. High temps will be a few degrees cooler but comfortably in the 20’s.

MLK Holiday Monday will offer up a cloudy day across the region with a few flurries possible across the NW mountains mainly. The NW flow will bring in few weak systems starting Monday night. This type of pattern tends to favor NW Montana in a line from Lookout Pass north to Whitefish. Look for periods of light snowfall on Monday night (1 -2” Whitefish & Lookout) into the day on Tuesday (1 – 3” possible for all areas). Upper mountain temps will stay seasonable in upper teens to mid-20’s both days.  

EAST of the Continental Divide:

The Alberta Clipper brought a few inches to Showdown and an inch at Red Lodge Friday morning with just a trace for the rest of the Eastside’s areas and resorts. This fast-moving front will move through by noon Friday as high-pressure builds into the region bringing a mix of sun and clouds Friday afternoon.

The dominant ridge of high-pressure spreads east Saturday into Sunday bringing a widespread forecast of partly sunny skies with warming temperatures for the entire region. Daytime high temps across the upper slopes will range from the upper 20’s to near 30 at Big Sky to upper 30’s to near 40 at Red Lodge. Light to moderate W/SW winds.

The dominant ridge of high-pressure is expected to flatten by MLK Monday as a NW flow begins to send in increasing clouds. Monday will be a transitional day with partly sunny skies making way for increasing clouds in the afternoon. Downslope SW winds will warm the alpine/upper mountain areas into the low to mid 30’s Monday.   

The NW flow ushers in its first weak storm system into the region on Tuesday morning. Teton Pass (open Fri-Sun) and Showdown (open Weds-Sun) sit in a good position for up to 4” Tuesday with lesser amounts of 1 -2” falling at Big Sky, Bridger and Red Lodge during the day. Temps On Tuesday will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than Monday’s – with upper mountain temps in the low to middle 20’s.

Below: Euro model animation map of the PNW for 500mb pressure gradients Friday 1/14 until Tuesday showing the dominant ridge of high-pressure "H" (in brown) dominating the 3-day weekend. The red indicates a NW flow that starts moving in Monday.   

Extended Forecast

WEST of the Continental Divide:

Essentially, Wednesday through Friday a steady period of unsettled weather will be likely under an active NW flow. Chances of 1 – 2” for most mountain areas of the Westside daily into Friday. A bit of a wildcard at this point is arctic air possibly advancing over the Divide east to west Tuesday night that could trigger higher amounts for Whitefish. Stay tuned.   

EAST of the Continental Divide:

Weather models are giving high confidence in the continuation of an active NW flow. This will be welcomed as several shortwave storm systems are expected to move through the Eastside Tuesday night through Friday. Daily chances of light accumulations in the 1- 3” range are possible for all areas/resorts across the region through next Friday. Keep checking back for updates on this developing stormy pattern.   

Below: Latest Euro Ensemble long range forecast animation for snowfall across Montana Monday 1/17 through Thursday 1/20 shows snowfall spreading over the Northern Rockies starting Monday night.

Powder Out -- 

Bob 

Announcements

Montana Ski Areas & Resorts / Geographical References   

WEST of the Divide: 

Whitefish Mountain Resort – Open Daily

Blacktail Mountain –Open  (Weds – Sun)

Turner Mountain – Open (Fri – Sun only)  

Lookout Pass (MT/ID)  - Open Daily

Montana Snowbowl – Open Daily

Discovery Basin – Open Daily

Lost Trail Powder Mountain – Open (Thurs-Mon)

EAST of the Divide:

Big Sky Resort – Open  Daily  

Bridger Bowl – Open Daily

Red Lodge Mountain – Open Daily

Great Divide – Open (Weds-Sun)

Showdown –  Open (Weds-Sun)

Teton Pass Ski Area –Open (Fri-Sun)  

Maverick Mountain – Open (Fri-Sun)     

 

Backcountry Avalanche Reports:

West Central Montana Avalanche Center

http://missoulaavalanche.org 

 Flathead Avalanche Center

 http://www.flatheadavalanche.org

Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center:

http://www.mtavalanche.com

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About Our Forecaster

Bob Ambrose

Forecaster

Ever since his early days as a ski racer on the icy slopes of New Hampshire’s White Mountains, Bob chased his dreams of deep powder west to Tahoe and finally Montana. A self-proclaimed 'weather junkie', his passion for maps, charts, and forecasts always lead him to the best snow in Montana.

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