Montana Daily Snow

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By Bob Ambrose, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago October 25, 2022

October Storm Opens the Door

Summary

Just a week ago smoke haze blanketed the Northern Rockies with temps approaching 70 degrees. Second summer abruptly ended this past weekend as a Pacific storm system dumped copious amounts of snow across the upper slopes of most of Montana’s mountains. By Tuesday morning, Big Sky received up to 26” in places with around 15” at Whitefish’s summit. And the future looks bright as well!

Short Term Forecast

West of the Continental Divide:

Mountain cams at Whitefish and Lookout Pass indicated roughly 2 – 4” fell overnight on Monday. Snow levels will be below base lodge elevations (4000’) for this shortwave storm with an additional 2 to 4” during the day on Tuesday.  

Below: Whitefish snow stake at 6800' on top of Big Mountain. It was wiped clean of 11" on Sunday morning. The accumulation below is from Sunday morning 10/23 thru Tuesday morning 10/26. 

A NW flow aloft will bring in another weak wave of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday with another shot of 2 – 4” (Lookout, Lolo, and Lost Trail passes will likely receive the higher amounts). A short-lived ridge of high-pressure will move in for Thursday and Friday drying things out but temps will stay below seasonal averages.

East of the Continental Divide: 

Looking back over the past weekend, a large closed low-pressure system moved directly over far SW Montana, leaving Big Sky with some of the deepest storm totals in the West with up to 26” in the upper Bowls.

Images: Courtesy of Big Sky Resort 

NW flow will continue into midweek with little disturbances moving through the region. Look for mountain snow showers across the Central and SW mountains with cumulative snow totals through Wednesday evening of around 2 – 5” above 7000’.

A weak ridge of high-pressure will move into the Northern Rockies delivering mainly sunny skies Thursday and Friday. There will not be too much of a warm up fortunately with daytime highs above 7000’ in the 25 – 30 degree range. These cold temps will allow the new snowfall to settle as well as keeping the snowmaking crews busy at Big Sky.

Below: European model short term forecast animation for the period Tuesday thru Saturday across Montana. The blue hues indicate showery conditions with the yellows signifying high pressure (or fair conditions). Look to the upper right corner for the corresponding day and time. 

Extended Forecast

West of the Continental Divide:

Models agree on a zonal flow (west to east) setting up for the weekend that will keep cool and showery conditions in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. Snow levels look to be in the 4000-4500’ range through the weekend with slight chances of 1 – 2” possible, mainly north of the I-90 corridor on Sunday.

All models are currently portraying a plume of moisture (possible AR) entering the Northern Rockies in the Monday/Tuesday time frame next week. There still are questions on snow levels and the timing of the precipitation, but it does have some promise for another layer of mid to upper mountain snowpack building.

East of the Continental Divide:  

With a zonal flow expected over the weekend, chances of light snowfall will materialize east of the Divide on Sunday/Sunday night. A cold trough of low pressure is favored by most models to move into the region by early next week that could bring a return of stormy weather to the forecast. Currently, next Tuesday and Wednesday have the best possibilities for delivering significant snow totals, especially across far SW Montana. Stay tuned.

Below: European model mostly aligns with the GFS and Canadian models on a return to stormy skies next week across a rather widespread area of Montana. Best possibilities lie Monday 10/31 thru Wednesday 11/2. 

Looking even further out to the 8 - 14 Extended Forecast, courtesy of NOAA, finds the Northern Rockies in a possible cooler than average trend. 

In addition, NOAA's predicting slightly above average precipitation amounts over the PNW and Northern Rockies. 

22/23 NOAA Winter Forecast: 

While we don’t weigh heavily on NOAA’s Winter predictions it should be mentioned that temperature sensors in the Pacific convergence zones continue to be colder than average, indicating another La Nina’ pattern. This will be our third straight La Nina’ winter in the Northern Rockies thus many meteorologists coining the term “Triple Dip”. Best chances for below average temps and above average snowfall look to be across the far NW region of Montana, generally north of Lookout Pass west of the Continental Divide. Like Tequila, take it with a grain of salt…  

 

Announcements

Tentative OPENING Dates - Montana Ski Areas & Resorts / Geographical References   

WEST of the Divide: 

Whitefish Mountain Resort –  Dec 8th

Blacktail Mountain –  Opening TBA

Turner Mountain –  TBA

Lookout Pass (MT/ID)  - TBA 

Montana Snowbowl – TBA

Discovery Basin –  TBA  

Lost Trail Powder Mountain –TBA    

EAST of the Divide:

Big Sky Resort –  Thanksgiving  11/24

Bridger Bowl – Closed – TBA

Red Lodge Mountain –  11/25

Great Divide – TBA  (expect an announcement soon) 

Showdown – TBA

Teton Pass Ski Area – TBA

Maverick Mountain – TBA  

About Our Forecaster

Bob Ambrose

Forecaster

Ever since his early days as a ski racer on the icy slopes of New Hampshire’s White Mountains, Bob chased his dreams of deep powder west to Tahoe and finally Montana. A self-proclaimed 'weather junkie', his passion for maps, charts, and forecasts always lead him to the best snow in Montana.

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