West of the Continental Divide:
 
Below: Stratus cloud clearing off the summit of Big Mountain at Whitefish Monday morning where the air temperature was -9F.

 

Arctic high-pressure ridge brings a mix of sun and cloud on Monday with increasing afternoon clouds. The air will continue to be quite cold, with upper mountain high temps only reaching 2F to 6F across the region. Light W/SW winds. 

Isolated snow showers develop overnight on Monday, mainly across West Central locations. Trace accumulations up to 2” are possible at Lookout Pass, Snowbowl, and Discovery by Tuesday morning. Tuesday, mainly cloudy in the morning across the region with afternoon snow showers developing as another weak system moves through western Montana. Whitefish, along with Lookout and Snowbowl could see an inch or two during the afternoon hours. With light SW winds aiding in the warm up, expect upper-mountain highs to reach a balmy 12F to 18F.  

Unsettled skies overnight Tuesday as snow showers linger into Wednesday morning, mainly along the I-90 corridor adding another 1 – 2” at Snowbowl and Lookout. Mainly cloudy skies on Wednesday for the mountains north of I-90 with a mix of sun and clouds for the areas along and south of I-90. Temps will be just below seasonal norms in the upper teens to low 20’s across the upper slopes of the region. 

Dry conditions prevail on Thursday along with a continued warming trend. Our next storm system will descend out of BC during the day on Friday. All three of the major weather models favor this but details on tracking and snow amounts are not quite dialed in just yet. The OpenSnow models are indicating this storm will move into the mountains along the MT/ID border and continue through West Central Montana. At this point, best chances for snowfall are at Lookout Pass where 3 – 6” could fall Friday through Friday night. Elsewhere, 1 – 3” at Whitefish, Blacktail, Snowbowl, LT and Discovery. Warmer on Friday with upper-mountain high temps in the mid 20’s to around 30F at Lookout Pass.   
 
 East of the Continental Divide:

Below: A cold, cold, -25F scene at Showdown Ski Area in the Little Belt Mountains of North Central Montana.

 

Below: A snowy Lone Mountain (Big Sky) under the deep freeze on Monday.

 

Arctic cold will hit its apex Monday morning east of the Divide with bone chilling lows around the -20F to -25F range at many base lodge locations. Mostly sunny and cold during the day on Monday with upper mountain high temps of -2F at Big Sky and Bridger Bowl, with 0F at Red Lodge.   

Increasing clouds Monday night with periods of snow developing Tuesday morning and lasting off and on through the day as a weak shortwave low rides through the region. Trace amounts up to 3 inches are possible at Big Sky, Bridger, and Showdown (reopens Weds). Breezy W/SW winds to 25 mph will aid temperature moderation on Tuesday (wind chills will still be cold) with upper mountain highs (at 8000’) of 12F to 15F at Big Sky and Bridger with 20F at Red Lodge. 

A building ridge of high-pressure will shift westward and into the Northern Rockies on Wednesday that looks to stick around at least until Friday morning. Generally, a mix of sun and clouds across the region on Wednesday and Thursday with a continued uptick in surface temperatures. Upper-mountain high temps (8K’) of 17 – 24F for Wednesday, with 22 – 29F on Thursday. Moderate and gusty S/SW winds are likely on both days. 

The next shortwave looks to roll down from Canada during the afternoon hours on Friday. While the timing and strength of this shortwave need more model runs to detail, it resembles the exact type of minor storm systems we saw during the beginning of last week. Those shortwaves dropped between 2 – 6” at Big Sky and Showdown early last week. All models favor a likelihood that this system will bring at least light snow into the region Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Continued mild on Friday with upper-mountain highs of 22 – 27F. Stay tuned…   

Below: High resolution Canadian model animation for snowfall over the Treasure State from Monday through 5AM Wednesday morning local time. SW and North Central Montana where Big Sky, Bridger Bowl, Red Lodge and Showdown are located will continue to see daily light accumulations into Wednesday morning. 

West and East of the Continental Divide: 

A zonal (west to east) flow will develop by Saturday 2/4 keeping temperatures slightly above average with daily chances of isolated snow showers over the weekend. The European model below brings a low into the Northern Rockies around Sunday afternoon bringing snowfall through Monday morning. SW Montana east of the Divide looks best positioned for possible significant snowfall from this system. After that, all models indicate an active period through the middle of next week.   

Below: Euro model Friday 2/3 through Monday 2/6 illustrates two systems moving through the Northern Rockies. The first Friday afternoon into Friday night and the second moves through roughly Sunday PM into Monday AM. Could this be the start of a stormy pattern for next week?  Stay tuned. 

 

 Thanks for reading, my next update will be next month on Wednesday, 2/1.  

Powder Out – 

Bob