Light snow fell across the North Country on Saturday evening with accumulations of 1" around the foothills, 2" at most central resorts and up to 3-4" across northern Vermont resorts. 

The Alberta Clipper responsible for the overnight snow is long gone Sunday morning as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure should bring mostly sunny skies early with temperatures starting in the 20s and rising to 30F at bases. Snow conditions will be mostly packed with some powder stashes.

The GFS animation above from Sunday into Monday calls for a large storm over the Great Lakes and Southeast Canada that will flooding the region with warm air.

Zooming out over North America illustrates that high pressure will be quick to move off the eastern Sea Board as a large storm develops over the Great Lakes and moves into Southeast Canada. Wicked strong southerly flow ahead of the storm will flood the region with warm air and rain (maybe even a thunderstorm) on Monday. With dewpoint temperatures approaching 45F at the Canadian Border we'll likely see widespread fog and some snow melt occurring slope side. Saturday night's snow should be long gone by Monday night.

The weather turns blustery for Monday Night and Tuesday as cold air is quick to re-enter the region (see last frame of animation above) with summits expected to bottom out back down near ~10-15F. Upslope snows are set to hit refresh on whatever melt occurred in the Greens, but other resorts that don't normally bank on upslope won't find many flakes.

Our next storm arrives on Wednesday. Models are trending more southerly on the storm track and unfortunately on the weaker side. The trend in precipitation (which would be all snow across the North Country) has been decreasing with each successive run of an experimental downscaled version of GFS ensemble:

What does all this mean? Less snow than originally anticipated. The upslope refresh on Tuesday combined with Wednesday's weaker storm look to produce ~4-7" region-wide with maxima in the White Mountains pushing 10" through Thursday:

Not terrible, but also not what we had hoped for. The models in the 4-7-day range this year have been terrible. Ensembles are our friends in these situations, but even those have trended weaker over time with at least three storms in the last three weeks. Perhaps with an upcoming regime change out west we'll see a similar change in our model forecast skill. I guess we'll have to stay tuned (ha, a pun) as we wait for our first big storm.

Enjoy your Sunday. The New England Daily Snow will return on Monday.

-Dr. Jay | New England Daily Snow