There was a gorgeous sunrise this morning from several resorts across the region from their webcams with a bright orange sky around 7AM. 

Sunrise came with temperatures that were mostly in the single digits across the region at elevation with an inverted temperate profile; temperatures in many valley locations were at or below 0F including Berlin, NH at -17F and Island Pond, VT at -20F. Estcourt Station, at the rooftop of Maine, was -33F this morning at 7AM.

Current Radar animation ending at 6:45AM on Wednesday morning. 

It is generally quiet out there across New England and the Northeast U.S. with the exception of some lake-effect snow off Lake Ontario into the western Adirondacks and far Southeast over Cape Cod. Otherwise, most of are resorts are cold and dry on Wednesday morning. The weather largely remains quiet for Wednesday and Thursday with our next shot at snow Thursday night. 

NAM model forecast animation for 7PM Thursday to 7AM Friday. 

That next shot of snow crosses the region with an Arctic Front that passes from northwest to southeast on Thursday night. The snowfall will likely fall in the form of snow squalls through the northern half of the region with quick bursts of heavy snow, reduced visibility, and strong winds. 1-2" of new snow is possible with the passage of the front across northern resorts, especially in the northern Greens, with lesser amounts as you head south and east. 

The big story of the short-term forecast will be the tandem drop in temperatures and increase in winds for Friday and Saturday. To be fair, it is cold out there now on Wednesday with highs at the summit only expected to be in the single digits, but bearable.  Temperatures "spike" to mid-teens on Thursday, but will crash behind the front on Thursday night and only get colder through the day on Friday. The coldest temperatures should push through New England between 2PM Friday and 2PM Saturday with a bottom sometime between Midnight and 7AM on Saturday in the -20s.

Negative teens are not that unbearable, but combined with winds 20-30+ mph (with higher gusts), the windchill temperature on Friday afternoon, Friday night, and Saturday morning will be between -30F and -50F.

You're probably going to want to check with resorts regarding Friday afternoon and Saturday morning lift holds and/or closures. Frostbite in minutes will be a legit concern not just for resort visitors, but for ski patrol, lift operators, and staff. It's not just how much cold you can deal with and how many layers you can wear, but it's how long you could potentially be exposed to the elements out there at a resort. Think about being stuck on a lift, working/loading a lift, needing a toboggan ride if you get hurt, losing a mitten while taking a selfie on the lift, forgetting about the goggle gap, those old poorly insulated boots you're still rocking from 2007, etc. 

The good news? Temperatures moderate pretty quickly into Sunday with high temperatures expected to rebound back into the upper 20s with some light snow (less than 2") into Monday morning. 

Many locations across the East are having their warmest winter to date on record. For most, that means no snow. New York City only today received their first measurable snowfall. Places out on Cape Cod received >10" of straight rain during the month of January. For the North Country, warm fortunately still means cold enough for snow, but barely; we've certainly had our share of mixed precipitation events and the ground was bare in many spots through the holidays. 

Climate Prediction Center temperature forecasts through 10 February (left) and 11-24 February (right).

Surprise! That's not going to change. The pattern continues to favor warmer than average temperatures through the rest of February with the Climate Prediction Center giving 60-70% odds of warmer weather next week and better than 50% odds that we stay warmer than normal through the end of the month. Warm doesn't necessarily mean no snow, but it certain loads the dice toward less snow. 

ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfall through 16 Feb. 

The ensembles don't have any strong signals for snow as we head through next week, but there are individual members with some decent snow toward the end of next week into next weekend (11-12 Feb). Nothing to lock in just yet, but something to keep an eye on.

-Dr. Jay

Next forecast on Friday.