Not much to say other than it's going to be cold for the next 36 hours. Temperatures recover to near 0F by Saturday evening and will be pushing through the +20s on Sunday. Some light snow is likely across northern Vermont on Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term Forecast
Many resorts in New England have either closed for Friday and Saturday or have limited operations. Please check with resort websites and/or social media prior to making the trek to the mountains.
Radar animation ending at 6:45AM on Friday.
An Arctic front has cleared New England on Friday morning and is just now at 7AM clearing through Boston. Snow squalls accompanying the front were good for anywhere from a dusting of snow to ~1" in the mountains. Behind the front is strong cold air advection and temperatures will drop throughout the day.
At 7AM on Friday morning temperatures are below 10F at most locations north and west of Boston behind the cold front, below 0F at almost every resort with elevations >2500 feet, and below -10F across the northern Greens, Whites, and western Maine. It's currently -20F at the top of Jay and -23F on the top of Mt. Washington. That -23F combines with their 83 mph sustained winds to produce a wind chill of -71F. And it's only going to get colder.
The forecast calls for temperatures to bottom out on Friday evening and Friday night between -20F to -30F at most resorts across the North Country with 20-30 mph winds keeping the wind chill at dangerous levels. The coldest temperatures will be on Saturday morning. The OpenSnow blend has -30F at Killington, -33F at Jay, -36F at Sugarloaf, -29F at Stowe... you get the idea.
The good news is that temperatures rebound to near 0F by Saturday afternoon and to +25F to +30F by Sunday. Resorts will likely continue with limited terrain or closures on Saturday morning, but probably be opening for the afternoon and definitely be back to full strength by Sunday. Check before you go.
GFS forecast animation for 7AM Sunday through 1PM on Monday.
Our next shot at snow showers arrive on Sunday and into Monday as a decaying cold front crosses the region. We have a slew of 0-1" amounts in the OpenSnow blend for each of the 12-hour periods on Sunday and Monday at several resorts across the northern Greens with a max of ~2-4" total at Jay.
Previous forecasts for next week were calling for a relatively quiet week as we head into next weekend. More recent forecasts have at least some snow (and rain) falling with another front crossing the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday. The timing of the precipitation will matter as the current GFS forecast has snow to start during the overnight period on Tuesday and changing over to rain showers on Wednesday at low elevations. Forecasts at higher elevations have mostly snow with 2-3" possible in the Greens. Some upslope in the wake of this system will be possible into Thursday across the northern Greens with another 1-2" at Jay currently in the forecast.
ECMWF and GFS Model comparison for next Saturday morning.
The deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS models diverge early next week and ultimately end up with wildly different forecasts by next weekend. The GFS model has a Nor'easter whereas the ECMWF model has a blue-bird day with relatively mild temperatures. The potential for snow does exist in the ensemble solutions, but it's currently a pretty low likelihood. Over time, these odds could definitely improve (or go to zero).
ECMWF and GFS ensemble odds of >3" of snow in 24 hours ending at 7AM next Saturday.
The ensemble odds of >3" of snow is low, but not zero. Well, it's practically zero in the ECMWF ensemble, but the GFS has 20-40% odds especially up in Maine. The good news is that there is at least some snow in the forecast and at least some of the models are pointing toward something bigger than piecemeal.
Stay tuned and stay warm.
The next daily snow will be an update on Sunday morning.