Temperatures will generally warm into the 30s this week with light snow or rain possible on Sunday night, Tuesday night, and a mix on Thursday night. A large amount of uncertainty exists as to whether or not we get a coastal storm next weekend.
Radar animation ending at 8:00 AM Sunday morning.
A warm front, and its parent storm off to our northwest, is lifting north across the region on Sunday morning bringing temperatures up with it. Valley temperatures are still below 10F across there region, but mid-slope elevations up to ~3000 feet have temperatures climbing already into the 20s (i.e., a temperature inversion). Temperatures should climb off their morning lows relatively quickly into the mid-30s across resort bases and into the upper 20s on the slopes under mostly cloudy skies on Sunday.
NAM model forecast animation for 7PM Sunday through 7AM Monday.
The aforementioned storm will pass to our north on Sunday night and its cold front will pass through New England into Monday morning. Any precipitation that falls early in the night could mix with rain showers as temperatures will still be above freezing in the valleys. Otherwise at elevation, expect some light snow in northern Vermont with accumulations generally under 1".
The week ahead: Temperatures
ECMWF ensemble daily temperature forecasts through 19 Feb at Rutland, VT.
As we look toward the week ahead, expect temperatures to stay warm in the mid-to-upper 30s during the day with overnight lows cold early, but warming late in the week. The ECMWF ensemble forecast (above) drops temperatures into next weekend, but is back to the mid-to-upper 30s again next week. Expect snow conditions in this pattern to soften during the day and refreeze at night. North slopes are still pretty shaded by the low sun angle so melting should not be a big issue.
The week ahead: Precipitation
Tuesday Night: A cold front will sweep across the region on Tuesday night. Forecasts are calling for 1-2" across resorts in Central and Northern New England with 2-4" up at Jay. Snow-levels at "central resorts" like Killington are sitting around ~1000 feet in elevation (Killington's base is at 1100 feet). It may not snow much at your house in the valley or on the roads up to the mountain, but most resorts should see some snow on their slopes.
Thursday and Thursday Night: A storm is expected to pass over the Great Lakes on Thursday and just north of the region through Friday. The warm front out ahead of this storm will bring mostly rain to New England late on Thursday, but freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible as we go into the overnight period on Thursday night especially at locations across northern New Hampshire into Maine. Best chances for accumulating snow will be at resorts like Sugarloaf with 2-4" in the forecast; We also have 1-2" at Jay.
ECMWF and GFS ensemble pressure and storm locations for next Saturday.
Next Weekend: The GFS model has a coastal-ish storm developing this weekend that tracks inland over Hartford and then offshore over Boston on Saturday. The ECMWF model says, "nah", but there is support in the ensembles for a storm along the coast next weekend. The GFS ensemble is faster with a storm up the coast on Friday night, whereas the ECMWF is slower with a storm making its way up the coast on Saturday. In either ensemble, spread is very large with storm locations spread out over large distances. It's worth keeping an eye on, but impossible to say what will happen today.
Have a great Sunday.
Next update: Monday morning.