Summary
The forecast remains on track for a storm beginning with snow on Tuesday evening/night and ending with mixed precipitation and rain on Wednesday.
Update
Temperatures dropped into the single digits across the valleys in New England on Monday night with teens above a radiational inversion on the slopes. High pressure will move offshore on Tuesday and southwest flow will start to bring clouds and slightly warmer temperatures into the region ahead of our next storm.
Low pressure will move over the Great Lakes and into Ontario and give way to secondary development along the coast on Tuesday night. The secondary storm then moves across Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday.
NAM model forecast animation for 7PM Tuesday through 7PM Wednesday.
Forecast Highlights:
- Dry air will initially limit snowfall and precipitation reaching the ground at the start of the storm
- Snowfall starts from west to east between 7 PM (eastern New York) and 2 AM (western Maine).
- Decent forcing exists for snowfall rates of 0.75-1" per hour for 3-6 hours over the Greens, Whites, and western Maine centered on daybreak Wednesday
- Warm air will work its way into the region from south to north on Wednesday; a changeover to mixed precipitation or rain is likely almost everywhere on Wednesday except for the highest elevations of the Whites and into northern Maine. It looks like one of those events that ends in drizzle and mist as temperatures spike into the upper 30s after the storm ends.
- Winds will gust out of the south >30-40 mph, especially above 3000 feet.
- Snowfall ratios will likely be less than 10:1 (wetter) and mixed precipitation/rain will knock back snow after it has accumulated.
Snowfall Accumulation
Total snowfall from the event will likely be in the 3-6" range across the Greens where mixed precipitation and an earlier changeover to rain knocks back amounts. The highest totals will fall across the higher elevations in the Whites and into Maine where >4-8" is possible.
RRFS model diagnostics for snow, sleet, freezing rain, and snow depth change through 1PM Thursday.
Expect additional updates on Wednesday and Thursday.
-Dr. Jay
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