New England Daily Snow
By Jay Cordeira, Meteorologist Posted 2 months ago December 9, 2023
Warmer temperatures over New England are expected on Saturday with rain changing over to snow on Sunday night. Snow will fall heavy at times on Monday morning with 6-12"+ of new snow expected across central and northern Vermont.
Temperatures are expected to rise on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s with increasing clouds as southwesterly winds ramp ahead of our next storm. Even across far northern resorts, we are expecting high temperatures on Saturday in the mid-40s (e.g., 45F at Jay). Snow conditions should be firm early and give way to softening surfaces in the afternoon.
The forecast remains tricky for the Sunday and Monday periods. Rain is expected across the region on Sunday as a front approaches from the West, primarily in the afternoon and evening (from west to east) and across all resorts. A coastal storm will develop along the front and pass over Cape Cod on Sunday night and Monday. This storm will draw cold air into the region and turn rain over to snow from northwest to southeast.
GFS model forecast animation for 7AM Sunday through 4PM Monday.
Locations across far northern Vermont will see the most snow out of this storm where three things are likely:
- Temperatures remain cold enough for snow the longest
- The best forcing for heavier snowfall rates occur (>1.5-2" per hour early Monday morning)
- Upslope on the backside of the storm persists into Monday night and early Tuesday
The one wildcard with this storm will be how wet the snow is and ultimately what the snow-to-liquid ratios end up as on the ground. Models typically use the 10:1 ratio (10 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid) and this storm could feature lower ratios on the order of ~8-10:1 for a period on Sunday night (i.e., heavier/wetter snow). The global models (e.g., GFS and ECMWF) have opening bids at 8-12 inches across northern Vermont with 6-8" as far south as Killington in the Greens. Currently (9AM Sat) the ECMWF solution is depicting snowfall totals that are ~75% of the GFS values.
GFS and ECMWF model forecasts for total snowfall using 10:1 ratios through 7AM Tuesday.
The 5-day snowfall totals from the OpenSnow blend are pretty robust with 18" of snow forecast at Jay Peak and 15" at Stowe. Lesser, but still decent, amounts can be seen in the image below with 8" at Killington. Note that the 18" at Jay breakdown as follows as ~12-20" on Sunday night through Monday night with some light snow on the back end through Wednesday:
- Sunday Night: 3-5"
- Monday: 7-11"
- Monday Night: 2-4"
- Tuesday: 0-1"
- Tuesday Night: 0-1"
- Wednesday: 0-1"
5-day OpenSnow snowfall forecast through Wednesday.
Next update: Sunday AM.
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