New England Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest New England Daily Snow

By Jay Cordeira, Meteorologist Posted 2 months ago December 8, 2023

Rain and snow on deck for Sunday into Monday

Summary

Snow conditions should remain in good shape through Saturday as temperatures rise ahead of our next storm. Soft snow, rain, and wind is likely on Sunday with a transition over to snow across the North Country into Monday.

Short Term Forecast

Light snow fell across most of New York on Thursday, but largely spared New England. Accumulations were mostly a dusting to an inch. Cooler temperatures over the last couple of days will now begin to moderate on Friday and into the weekend ahead of our next storm Sunday night.

Saturday and Sunday

Slopeside temperatures remain on the cooler side of 30F on Friday under mostly sunny skies as high pressure slides east over New England. Southwest flow will then slowly start to ramp up temperatures into the upper 30s to near 40F on Saturday. Snow conditions should hold under mostly cloudy skies for a decent day of skiing and riding. 

The overnight low temperature on Saturday night is not likely to drop back below freezing as warm air continues to move into New England ahead of a region of low pressure to our west. Sunday morning currently looks pretty dry for most of New England with rain likely starting around lunch time across eastern New York and Vermont and by mid-afternoon in New Hampshire. The rain should hold off until after last chair in Maine. 1-3" of rain is likely across the mountains with strong southerly winds developing by midday. 

Monday

Forecasts earlier this week had originally taken a strong storm through the eastern Great Lakes that brought widespread heavy rain to the region on Sunday night into Monday. While rain is still expected with a storm to our West on Sunday into Sunday night, latest guidance tracks this storm across the western Great Lakes with coastal development of a new storm along its trailing cold front into Monday. This development is huge as it will change rain over to snow across the interior by early Monday morning as low pressure passes over southeast New England into Maine. 

GFS model forecast animation for 10AM Sunday through 1PM Monday. 

There is still considerable uncertainty in the track of the coastal low that may develop and how much cold air is able to filter in to produce snow. Take a look at the multi-model solutions valid at 7AM on Monday morning:

Multi-model forecast solutions at 7AM on Monday morning. 

With enough cold air and an early transition over to snow, the latest models suggest that a decent thump of snow is possible across northern Vermont and New Hampshire on Monday. Just for fun: the 06Z run of the GFS Model shown above has produces >30" of snow in northern Vermont in a 24-hour period from 1AM Monday to 1AM Tuesday. Will that happen? Probably not. Could it? Maybe. But will it?

24-hour snowfall from the GFS model ending at 1AM Tuesday using a snowfall ratio of 10:1.

Perhaps a more conservative forecast based on current model uncertainty is for 4-8" of new snow on Monday across northern Vermont with 2-4" in the Whites. Of course, these numbers are subject to change if the latest GFS Model turns out to be right.

OpenSnow 5-day snowfall forecast through Tuesday.

Extended Forecast

Temperatures should return to near normal following Monday's storm on west and northwest flow. This pattern should keep snow showers as a possibility across the North Country throughout next week with the ECMWF ensemble suggesting best odds for widespread accumulating snow next Thursday (12/14).

ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snow through 22 December. Each grid box represents a 24-hour snowfall total from one of the ensemble members shaded in inches. I've highlighted the Monday and Thursday periods. 

The next Daily Snow will be posted on Saturday given the prospects for snow Sunday night into Monday.

-Dr. Jay

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About Our Forecaster

Jay Cordeira

Meteorologist

Jay Cordeira is an all-around outdoor enthusiast living and working among the lakes and mountains in New England. When he’s not in the classroom teaching the next generation of meteorologists, you can find him on the trails, rivers, lakes, slabs, and backcountry of the White Mountains.

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