New England Daily Snow

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By Plymouth State, Forecasters Posted 8 years ago March 15, 2016

End of the Week Snow in the Forecast

Tuesday

Good morning everyone. I’m currently writing to you from Marshfield, MA where it is absolutely dumping rain right now. A low pressure system has been producing both liquid and frozen precipitation in New England since yesterday afternoon. A few mountains accumulated about an inch of snow yesterday, but as many regions in the Northeast had a changeover t rain last night, I wouldn’t be surprised if those accumulations have melted already. Radar images are still showing a variety of precipitation occurring throughout the region.

Image Courtesy of Inetllicast

The heaviest rain should diminish in southern New England by this afternoon. Expect some lingering showers to hang around until tomorrow morning for most of eastern New England. Northern New England (especially Maine) is expected to see the most consistent precipitation throughout the day today, which will be mostly rain. Although Sunday River and Jay Peak were reporting decent surfaces considering the conditions as of late, it’s only a matter of time before these rain events thin the surfaces all the way down to the the rock/grass.

Wednesday

With the exception of a few isolated showers, most of the rain associated with this low pressure system should come to an end by the time of the morning commute tomorrow. Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow, getting into the 50’s for many areas. Remaining ski surfaces will be thin and icy in the morning before temperatures warm up. The afternoon temperatures should cause the remaining snow pact to be slushy and sticky close to the base of the mountain. Wednesday is looking like the driest day this week, before another system prepares to produce more rain/snow for New England at the end of the week.

End of Week

A very broad upper level trough and a strong polar jet stream will help develop a strong low pressure system over The Great Lakes tomorrow night. The precipitation associated with this storm will extend from the center of the low pressure system all the way east into New England. Most of the precipitation here in the Northeast will be associated with instability being caused by the exit region of the polar jet stream (as discussed yesterday). The precipitation would begin late tomorrow night and continue into Thursday afternoon.

The models are unsure of the precipitation type for northern New England at the moment, but this will be primarily a rain event for regions south of central New Hampshire. Northern New England (especially northern NH and Maine) has the potential to see a decent amount of snowfall on Thursday morning/afternoon. This is what the NWS is predicting for snowfall by Thursday night. 

These amounts have the potential to increase by the weekend with the potential for some more snow on Friday. By this time, a trough will dig south from eastern Canada into New England. With left over moisture from the low pressure system in The Great Lakes, there will be the potential for precipitation to continue through Friday morning/afternoon. As colder air digs south from Canada, there is a better chance that this precipitation will fall as snow in northern VT/NH and Maine. If there is more snow than rain during the events expected to take place towards the end of this week, then there will be the potential for some decent runs at the mountains that still have a good snow coverage this weekend. I’ll keep you posted as we learn more about these approaching systems.

Long Range

So after checking out some long range models runs there’s a bit of bad news and good news to discuss. The bad news is that spring officially starts next week, and with everyday that passes the average temperature gets a little bit warmer, rain becomes more likely, and snow becomes less likely. The good news is, the GFS long range model is still predicting the potential for snow in the next 2 weeks. I won’t say when or how much, because these models aren’t very reliable for that time frame. However, even though these two week snow events the GFS is predicting may not occur, the fact that the GFS still thinks there is the potential for significant snow events is a good sign.

As always, we will have to wait and see what mother nature has in store for us and the rest of our ski season. If you're a season pass holder, I’d highly recommend getting to a mountain with decent snow coverage this weekend. As a couple of inches are expected to fall in the Sugarloaf/Sunday River region as well as parts of VT and northern NH, this could be one of your last weekends to ski some fresh snow pact (even if it’s only good for a few morning runs). If you have to pay for the sometimes pricey lift tickets, it may not be worth it. I’ll be back tomorrow with more updates. Here is what the GFS has for 7 day snowfall. Have a great day, and stay dry!

Rob Megnia Graduate Student, Plymouth State University/New England Daily Snow

 

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