Good morning everyone! I hope everyone had a great weekend. I didn’t spend mine at the mountain, but I had several friends who did. In accompany with social media reports, I got first hand reports from friends who skied Stowe, Loon, and Attitash this past weekend. All three of them made the best of their trip, but they also had predictions for these resorts being open for another 2-3 weeks tops. With the lack of snow and frequent rain lately, that seems completely plausible.

The reports from Stowe, Loon, Attitash, and other mountains in New England had similar characteristics. Icy in the morning, slushy in the afternoon, and a select few trails providing quality runs. The most positive social media reports have been coming from the same two resorts we’ve been hearing about since our last significant snowfall event, Sunday River and Jay Peak. With more rain in this week’s forecast, every trip to your mountain could likely be your last for the season!

 

Monday

A low pressure system is working its way into the region as we speak. Northern areas of New England are expected to see a mix of rain, sleet, and snow. As we’ve seen with the last few precipitation events, the amount of snow melted by the rain is expected to exceed any accumulated snow. The only areas that may benefit from this system would be those in Maine (Sugarloaf, Sunday River, Saddleback), as the models are suggesting that these will be the areas that would see the most snowfall associated with this event. Rain can currently be see to our west on this radar image.

Image Courtesy of Intellicast

There is also the potential for areas at higher elevations in New Hampshire to see a couple inches of snowfall as well. If you’re planning a trip to one of the mountains that still has snow today, you’re best bet would be to get some runs in during the early part of the day, as precipitation is expected to start as early as noon time. Here are the accumulation amounts that The National Weather Service is projecting for this storm.

Tuesday

The first half of Tuesday will consist of scattered rain showers that will be associated with the low pressure system approaching the region today. Any showers should diminish by the mid afternoon. The slopes will likely be even more thin and slushy after about a day’s worth of mostly liquid precipitation. As the precipitation diminishes, New England will be left with overcast skies and temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.

Short Range

On Wednesday, the models are suggesting that we will be in between low pressure systems to our east and west. This would produce overcast skies and slightly warmer temperatures than we will see on Tuesday. By Wednesday night, New England will be under the poleward exit region of a jet core at upper levels. A jet core can be described as the area of strongest wind speeds in the jet stream (polar jet stream in this case).

Image Courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

The “poleward exit region” of a jet core is associated with atmospheric instability that can result in precipitation. This is what we will be looking at on Wednesday night. The instability associated with the polar jet stream will persist into Thursday, which will provide the potential for scattered showers on Thursday as well. This week is shaping up to be pretty wet! With the already thin conditions and warming temperatures, the rain will likely prevent any potential for a decent day at the mountain this week.

Long Range

As the ski season continues to draw to an end, there is still little hope that a late season snowstorm will give new life to the thinning ski surfaces in the Northeast. As a weak disturbance propagates away from the weekend on Thursday night, high pressure will move into New England for the weekend. Conditions should be warm and sunny with clear skies. Although ski surfaces will be even thinner this weekend with the expected rain for this week, you might still consider a trip to the mountain. Many skiers/riders have been making the best of the poor conditions as of late, and if you’re a diehard skier/rider and can’t wait until next season (or a miracle late season blizzard) to get back on the slopes, it might be worth making a trip and getting some decent spring runs in while snow still remains. Here is a 7 day predicted snow fall map from tropicaltidbits.com (Assuming a 10:1 snow:liquid ratio)

The GFS is currently tracking a storm that would arrive Sunday morning. This storm is currently predicted to be another mix of rain/snow. However, this forecast from the GFS model is too far out to make any confident predictions in regards to precipitation type (rains vs. snow). We’ll keep an eye on it and let you know as the potential event draws closer. I’ll be back tomorrow with more updates on the precipitation this week, and any reports of the conditions at the ski areas that still have snow. Have a great start to the week! Cheers.

 

Rob Megnia Graduate Student, Plymouth State University/ New England Daily Snow