I hope everyone had an enjoyable and safe summer! Fall is in full swing across the Land of Enchantment as the aromas of fresh roasted green chile fill the air, the aspens and cottonwoods prepare to show off their golden colors, and the shorter days with lowering temperatures across the high country offer the first chances of snow for the 2021-2022 season.

The first snow of the season is always special. We can almost taste those magical first turns. As a kid growing up in Santa Fe, I recall the annual Ski Swap held in the old Sweeney Center always stoked anticipation for the upcoming season. Speaking of which, the Santa Fe Ski Swap is back this year, slated for November 19-20, and 20% of sales benefit the Santa Fe Ski Team.

On Thursday, a slow-moving storm is moving into our region and will bring more much-needed precipitation and some high-elevation snow overnight Thursday and Friday. 

This is what our storm looks like from the NOAA GOES satellite on Thursday morning. The center of the storm will track across New Mexico Thursday night into Friday.

The radar on Thursday morning shows rain showers firing up across New Mexico. Temperatures will drop as the storm crosses Thursday night and precipitation above 11,000 feet will shift to heavy, wet snow.

The best chance for snow accumulation will be from the top of Ski Santa Fe and Lake Peak up north across the Pecos high country to Taos Ski Valley Highline and Kachina, and the Wheeler Peak Wilderness. Truchas Peaks could be favored for the most accumulation.

Here is the overall liquid precipitation forecast through Saturday which is fantastic given the improved, but still moderate to extreme drought, across New Mexico.

If this were January or February we would be talking about a full-on powder day for Friday and Saturday. But since we are still in the transition from summer to winter, most of the above precip will fall as rain, with the exception of the northern high country, as shown in the snow forecast below. 

The sweet spot for most accumulation could be Truchas Peaks between Ski Santa Fe and Taos.

With heavy wet snow and temperatures hovering around freezing it is always hit or miss how much snow will actually accumulate as opposed to melting. 

Several inches should accumulate at Taos Ski Valley Highline and Kachina Peak.

And I like the summit of Ski Santa Fe for a healthy dusting which should be visible from town on Friday and Saturday mornings during breaks in the clouds.

After the Thursday to Saturday storm, warm and dry weather returns Monday through Wednesday before another chance for light precipitation around October 7th and 8th. 

Looking further ahead, both the GFS and Euro extended models below show the chance of a colder system in the inner-mountain west sometime between October 10th and 14th (blue colors indicate a cooler, stormier pattern whereas oranges indicate a warmer, drier pattern).

New Mexico is currently on the southern fringe of this extended forecast storm so we will need some southern shift luck for any hopes of meaningful precipitation. We will know more in the coming days if another taste of early winter is in store.

We all remember last year, the October 26-28 storm brought 2 FEET of snow to Taos and Red River. Could we see another October surprise this year?

I will post again on Friday to see how the first part of our current storm performs overnight Thursday.

¡Viva la nieve! ¡Que viva!

¡Viva Nuevo Mexico! 

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected]

New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley, Angel Fire (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)