The good news on Tuesday morning is that we have a couple of shots of winter coming our way the next several days. The not-so-good news is that this winter visit will be mostly manifested by cold temperatures and strong winds and not so much natural snow. 

Below is our state of play on the GOES water vapor satellite imagery from Tuesday morning.

Off the coast of California is the main event, a strong cold front and storm heading our way with a projected Wednesday 6am arrival. More on this below.

Then far behind off the coast of Alaska is a cold front that will bring New Mexico another shot of cold air on Friday morning but it isn't looking like we will get any precipitation from this system.

We woke up to grey skies on Tuesday thanks to a moisture plume streaming in from Baja California. The San Juans from Wolf Creek down to Chama might see several inches of snow today.

Snow flurries are flying at Taos Ski Valley and Red River on Tuesday morning thanks to this moisture and southwest wind.

But I am not expecting much in the way of accumulation with this preamble to the main storm. Maybe a dusting to an inch or so in the highest elevation northern mountains with some luck through Tuesday.

Here is the European model loop of the two cold fronts that will impact New Mexico this week, the first Wednesday around 6am and the second on Friday morning. These cold fronts will keep high temps in the 20's and lows in the teens/low 20's above 10,000ft from Wednesday through the weekend, which should be good for snowmaking ahead of the holidays.

When the first cold front crosses in the dawn hours Wednesday we will get a quick hard shot of snow in the northern mountains and another round of extreme winds similar to last Friday.

We have been looking at this storm as a low-end 1-5" snowfall event favoring the northern mountains and that is still pretty much the case for most mountains.

I think we could see 6+" storm totals around Taos Ski Valley once again due to orographic lift advantages with the southwest and west-southwest winds and the northern positioning of the storm. And also because Taos could pick up some bonus snow in the pre-event on Tuesday. But best to keep expectations low overall on this storm due to the fast-moving, short-duration event.

Unfortunately, winds will likely wreak havoc once again on the snowfall that we do receive. The northern mountains high country will see 60-80 mph gusts on Wednesday between 6am and 1pm. 

Bottom line:

• Light snow flurries on Tuesday around Taos and Red River with minimal accumulation expected.
• A potent cold front will bring a quick strong shot of 1-5" snow early Wednesday morning in the northern mountains. Snow should end by late morning.
• Extreme and potentially damaging winds on Wednesday with gusts over 60 mph could close lifts and/or produce blowing snow and limited visibility on the very limited terrain currently open.
• I think the following snowfall amounts are likely for each mountain through Wednesday morning.
  
  
  • 0" Ski Apache
  • 1-3" Sandia Peak
  • 1-4" Pajarito
  • 1-4" Sipapu
  • 1-4" Angel Fire
  • 2-5" Red River
  • 2-6" Ski Santa Fe
  • 3-7" Taos Ski Valley

Thursday will be a transition day ahead of the next cold front on Friday morning. Any precipitation with this front is forecast to stay well to our north but expect a biting cold and windy day on Friday.

From around December 18th to the 22nd there is now fairly high confidence that weak high pressure will build close enough to New Mexico (the light yellows below) to keep any storm energy stuck off the coast of California and out of our area.

Here is the most likely forecast pattern for Saturday, December 18th through Tuesday, December 22nd with no forecast snow for the Land of Enchantment.

Highs and lows during this timeframe should remain in the 20's which hopefully will allow snowmaking to continue.

Then looking out in the fantasy land of 10+ day forecast range for December 25th-26th, the storm brewing off the Pacific coast could finally move east. 

This could mean a significant holiday storm for the Rocky Mountain west. How New Mexico will fit into this equation remains to be seen. We didn't get the Thanksgiving miracle storm. Will we get a shot at another holiday miracle in late December? Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading and I will post a storm update on Wednesday.

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected]

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Opening Dates (consult with resort website and social media for latest updates)
→ Angel Fire: December 17, 2021 
→ Pajarito: TBD
→ Red River: OPEN 
→ Sandia Peak: TBD
→ Ski Apache: TBD
→ Ski Santa Fe: OPEN
→ Sipapu: OPEN
→ Taos: OPEN

New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)