New Mexico Daily Snow
By Julien Ross, Forecaster Posted 11 days ago February 12, 2024
Ski Apache nabbed 2 feet of snow in the February 10-11 storm and will have deep conditions on Monday. Elsewhere will be soft conditions following the February parade of storms. We now pivot into a dry pattern through at least February 17th. Snow could return around the latter part of President's Day weekend but we still have low confidence.
Short Term Forecast
The last few times in December, January, and early February that we checked the current snowpack compared to the average, the southern mountains lagged far behind the rest of the state.
Well, El Niño showed up fashionably late to the southern mountains with the February 10-11 storm.
Ski Apache picked up 24" of snow and just like that is at 100% of the average snowpack for February 12th.
Ski Apache opened part of the mountain on Sunday but Monday could be epic with sunny skies and likely rope drops. If anyone reading hits Ski Apache on Monday please let me know how it is!
Here is the "keep me honest" report to close the books on the February 10-11 storm.
The storm trended further south than the vast majority of the global models and this here local forecaster expected. Hence, the deeper totals for Sandia Peak and Ski Apache, as well as better totals for Pajarito and Ski Santa Fe on the southern edge of the Jemez and Sangres.
Looking back, the European Model was one strong outlier for a more southern solution and less snow for the northern mountains, and this ended up verifying. My colleague, Powderchaser Steve, wrote about this southern trend and his concerns about a bust for Taos on Saturday evening.
Even with the southern trend, I still thought Angel Fire would pick up more snow than 4" with the eastern upslope. So Angel Fire was the most disappointing bust in this storm.
We now pivot to at least five days of dry and warming conditions from February 12th through the 17th.
Looking out into the 7 to 10-day forecast. Both the GFS and European Ensembles show some signals of activity returning around February 18th, but nothing too confident at this point.
Here are all 30 runs of the GFS Ensemble.
Here are all 51 runs of the European Ensemble.
Description: The graphics above show 30 versions of the GFS Ensemble and 51 versions of the European EPS ensemble model on the y-axis (vertical) and 15 days from left to right on the x-axis (horizontal). Each colored rectangle shows a chance for snow, with grey equaling little snow, light blue equaling light snow, and dark blues and purples showing significant snow. The more the colors are aligned vertically, the higher the confidence in the forecast.
The strongest signal I see for the next storm is around February 21-22, with the standard caveat that anything beyond 7 days is well into fantasy land.
For now, enjoy the amazing snowpack and conditions across all mountains with bluebird skies!
Since we are starting a 5-day dry stretch, I won't post on Tuesday, February 13th, and will be back on Wednesday, February 14th for a Valentine's Day post!
¡Viva la nieve!
NEW: Powder Vision
In addition to our new "Live Snow" data that shows hourly snowfall from nearby weather stations, we built a system to estimate the amount of snow that accumulates on a snow stake camera so that you can track hour-by-hour snowfall for the last 24 hours.
Many ski resorts have snow stake cameras and this allows us to (try to) figure out how much snow falls each hour. We're calling this "Powder Vision".
- Go to any ski resort screen in OpenSnow with a snow stake camera.
- Tap the "Snow Report" tab.
- View the latest snow stake camera snapshot and hour-by-hour snowfall for the last 24 hours.
We have over 60 snow stake cameras available right now and we do our best to add new cams to OpenSnow if we can host them.
Powder Vision and Live Snow are available on OpenSnow.com and in the OpenSnow app with an All-Access subscription. All-Access includes 10-day snow forecasts, high-resolution weather maps, expert local analysis, custom snow alerts, iOS widgets, and much more.
View → Powder Vision Example
New Mexico Geography Key
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)