New Mexico Daily Snow

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By Julien Ross, Forecaster Posted 2 months ago February 14, 2024

Stubborn storm track trending north

Summary

Snowpack and conditions are phenomenal across the Land of Enchantment. But an extended 7-10 day dry period looks likely from February 14th onward. We will need to watch and wait for the storm track to return south.

Update

Valentine's Day 2024 has gifted us snow lovers with amazing conditions following a very active first 10 days of February.

The early February storm cycles set the stage for earn-your-turns stoke on Kachina Peak.

February is shaping up eerily similar to January, where the first half was a snowfall frenzy and the second half much quieter.

It is a calm week and quiet extended forecast across the Land of Enchantment so I will keep this post short and sweet.

The bottom line is that over the past 48 hours, the storm track has dug its heels in on a stubborn trend that would just miss New Mexico to the north over the next 7-10 days.

Both the GFS Ensemble and European Ensembles are aligned on this scenario.

Here is the GFS Ensemble for snowfall that illustrates the storm trajectories for the next 7-10 days.

And here is the European Ensemble.

Could one or more of these storms nudge south and bring at least the northern mountains some snowfall? 

Absolutely.

Here is an illustration of all 51 model runs of the European Ensemble with about half of the runs showing some chance for precipitation in the third week of February. So at least there is some hope.

But these scattered signals aren't the high probabilities we ideally want to see.

We will need some help from the storm track to dip south to bring meaningful snowfall back to New Mexico in the second half of February.

I will circle back on Thursday to see if any new trends are emerging.

Thanks for reading!

Julien Ross
[email protected]

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New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)

About Our Forecaster

Julien Ross

Forecaster

Julien was born and raised in Santa Fe, New Mexico and was introduced to skiing at age 7 through the public schools subsidized ski program at Ski Santa Fe. It was love at first turn and Julien has been chasing deep powder and good mogul lines ever since. Julien grew up fascinated by weather and studied physical geography with a focus on meteorology at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff.

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