Current Conditions

The Southern Lakes picked up a nice shot of fresh snow of between 5-15cm late Wednesday on the backside of that Tasman storm. Treble Cone's report of 12 cm was the deepest of the bunch. There's still a long way to go, but it's a start, and the snow guns have been cranking since Wednesday night thanks to chilly temperatures.

Canterbury fields received 10-25cm from the same storm Wednesday night, which was on the lower side of the forecast. But as I mentioned in the last forecast, it was a tricky one with marginal temperatures at base levels (base levels are around 1300-1500m) and low snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR). Also, not all ski fields are reporting at this point, so info on the ground is skint. The snow itself is dense and sticky, which is ideal for building the base layer of the snow pack. The snow guns have also been working around the clock here.

Opening Dates

Of the larger commercial ski fields on the South Island of New Zealand, Mt Hutt is scheduled to open next Friday, the 13th June, followed by Cardrona, Coronet Peak and The Remarkables on Saturday, the 14th June. Treble Cone and Porters Pass are scheduled a couple of weeks later on Friday, the 27th of June.

Turoa and Whakapapa on Mt Ruapehu in the North Island plan to open their learner slopes sometime over Matariki Weekend, 19th-22nd June, followed by the rest of the mountain as conditions allow. Other smaller club fields scattered throughout the country will also open as conditions allow, typically from late June through to mid-July.

Forecast for Friday 6th to Monday 9th June: Polar Blast Still Targeting Canterbury

A storm bringing a bitterly cold polar blast from Antarctica will drop snow over Kiwi slopes from Friday into Monday. Canterbury is once again in the firing line and will score between 30-60+cm, with Mt Hutt well placed for totals near the high end of that range. The edges of the storm are still likely to bring 5-15cm to the Southern Lakes, as well as 10-20cm to Mt Ruapehu, about half as much as previous forecasts.

For the South Island, the bulk of the snow will fall late Friday into early Saturday down to around 500m. It'll be high-quality stuff with high SLRs by NZ standards.

Snow levels will then drop even further to around 300m or less for a time Saturday morning, but by this time, snow will have mostly cleared the Southern Lakes and only lighter snowfall will linger in Canterbury until late in the day. Light snow will likely show up again in Canterbury for the latter half of Sunday and the first half of Monday.

After the storm, Mt Hutt will be looking good for opening day with soft powder on top of a firmer base. Non-stop snow making will also add to it all, especially in the Southern Lakes, where ski fields will be in a much better position for opening day.

Another storm from the west is likely to make landfall Tuesday night, 10th June. The storm is expected to start warm and wet, but colder temperatures on the backside will bring snowfall from late Wednesday, June 11th, through Thursday, June 12th. Canterbury is in the firing line yet again, but at this point, model snow accumulations range from just a little to a moderate amount.

At this stage, high pressure is expected to settle and clear things up on Friday, 13th June, just in time for Opening Weekend. Perfect!

Thanks for reading. The next forecast will be out early Monday. Hopefully, I'll be dropping some big numbers into it.

Mike