Northwest Daily Snow

Short Term Forecast

Forecast for Western Washington:

Monday is a powder day for much of Western Washington. Preliminary snow totals from Saturday PM through first thing Monday AM include the following:

• 20" - Mt. Baker
• 14" - Stevens Pass
• 13" - Alpental
• 11" - Crystal Mountain
• 7" - White Pass (includes Sunday AM to Monday AM only, Sat PM missing)
• 5" - Snoqualmie West
• 3" - Mission Ridge

Snowfall on Sunday & Sunday night shifted southward from Mt. Baker into the Mt. Rainier area, but a Puget Sound Convergence Zone also set up further north, resulting in heavy snow at Stevens Pass. Check out this clip from Stevens Pass on Sunday afternoon (courtesy of OpenSnow forecaster, Evan Thayer).

On Monday, we have seen some lingering snow showers across the Cascades, but overall the event is tapering off. Additional snow totals on Tuesday AM's report will likely be in the 1-3 inch range for most of the Cascades, while the North Cascades around Baker have seen a more noticeable drying trend with minimal to no additional accumulations expected.

A lull in the action will occur on Monday night and early Tuesday ahead of a much-anticipated strong storm. 

The surface low associated with this storm has trended further north, but the overall forecast remains on track with heavy snow, cold air, and very low snow levels expected (ranging from sea level to 800 feet north of I-90 and sea level to 1,500 feet south of I-90).

Light to moderate snow will begin on Tuesday afternoon as the leading edge of moisture arrives from the west. A southwesterly flow will then develop on Tuesday night as the strongest part of the storm approaches, with heavy snow expected from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon.

The heaviest snow will come to an end by late in the day on Wednesday, but backside snow showers persist on Wednesday night and to a lesser extent on Thursday. Winds will be strongest on Tuesday night and Wednesday before decreasing on Thursday.

Snow Totals:

I'm expecting snow totals from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening to range from 15-30 inches across the Cascades and Olympics with isolated higher amounts possible. On the eastern side of the Cascades, Mission Ridge should pick up 6-12 inches.

Wednesday will be a storm skiing day and will offer deep conditions, but strong winds, possible lift closures, and poor travel conditions (especially with lowland snow in some areas) can be expected. Therefore, I would target Thursday morning for deep powder along with lighter winds and improved visibility.

Following a lull in the action late Thursday and early Friday, another storm is possible in the Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon timeframe. This storm could offer a nice refresher on the slopes with snow levels remaining very low. 

Forecast for Eastern Washington/Northern Idaho:

Snow totals from the recent have been a little disappointing for the Inland Northwest as the best moisture and energy appear to have stayed a bit further south than expected. Schweitzer did well with 8 inches, while 49º North, Silver, and Lookout had only received 1-3 inches storm total as of Monday AM. Bluewood likely received heavy snow, but they are not reporting snowfall yet this year.

A secondary disturbance is moving into the Inland NW on Monday and an unstable atmosphere is resulting in scattered moderate to heavy snow showers across the area.

By the time Tuesday AM rolls around, 24-hour snow totals should be in the 1-4 inch range across INW ski areas, while isolated higher amounts of 6 inches couldn't be ruled out if a heavier snow shower sets up over an area for an extended period.

A lull in the action will occur on Tuesday ahead of a much-anticipated strong storm. The surface low associated with this storm has trended further north, but the overall forecast remains on track with heavy snow, cold air, and very low snow levels expected (down to valley bottoms throughout the event).

Light snow showers will begin on Tuesday night as the leading edge of moisture approaches. A strong southwest flow can then be expected on Wednesday as the strongest part of the storm approaches, with heavy snow expected from Wednesday morning through Wednesday night.

On Thursday, a band of moderate to heavy snow is expected to re-develop across the Southern and Eastern Inland NW region (Bluewood to Silver to Lookout) as a strong jet stream maximum sets up favorably across the region. Lighter snow showers should continue further north toward Schweitzer as well.

Snow showers could continue well into Thursday evening before eventually tapering off by Friday morning.

The strongest winds associated with this storm can be expected on Wednesday, with relatively lighter (but still gusty) winds expected on Thursday.

Snow Totals:

I'm expecting storm total snowfall from Tuesday night through Friday morning to range from 1 to 2 feet for ski resorts throughout the Inland Northwest. Snow quality will be very good thanks to the cold air in place.

Thursday will offer the deepest conditions on the slopes and winds will be a bit lighter compared to Wednesday, when high winds could result in lift closures. Travel conditions will be rough on both Wednesday and Thursday, however, with heavy snow expected for both the lower elevations (including Spokane) and higher elevations.

Travel conditions will improve on Friday and there should be plenty of leftovers as well.

The next storm is trending toward a miss for the Inland Northwest as it will initially hit the Cascades on Friday/Saturday, but is expected to move too far south thereafter for anything more than flurries. This isn't a done deal yet, though, so we'll keep an eye on this.

Forecast for Oregon:

Monday is a powder day for much of Oregon (for open areas at least). Preliminary snow totals from late Saturday night through first thing Monday AM include the following:

• 19" - Mt. Hood Meadows
• 16" - Timberline
• 14" - Anthony Lakes
• 10" - Hoodoo
• 8" - Mt. Hood Skibowl
• 6" - Mt. Bachelor

Moderate to heavy snow showers have continued on the backside of this storm on Monday, I'm expecting new snow totals on Tuesday AM to range from 6-12 inches across the Cascades and 3-6 inches across the Blues. Cold air in place will result in low snow levels and great-quality snow.

Taking a closer look, Mt. Bachelor's snow stake has picked up an additional 4 inches since Monday morning's report (it's Monday afternoon as of this writing). Timberline is also approaching two feet in the last 24 hours since 4 pm Sunday, and may end up with a storm total of over 2 feet by the time all is said and done.

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A lull in the action will occur on Monday night and early Tuesday ahead of a much-anticipated strong storm. 

The surface low associated with this storm has trended further north, and as a result, temperatures will not be quite as cold and snow levels not quite as low as previously expected, but it will still be an all-snow event with snow levels remaining below ski resort base areas.

Significant energy in the upper atmosphere along with abundant moisture will also result in a heavy snow event for all mountainous regions of Oregon.

Light to moderate snow will begin on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as the leading edge of moisture arrives from the west.

A strong southwesterly flow will then develop by early Wednesday morning as the strongest part of the storm approaches, with heavy snow expected for Western Oregon from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

Eastern Oregon will see periods of moderate snow from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. From Thursday morning through Thursday evening, heavy snow is expected to develop across Eastern Oregon as a strong jet stream maximum sets up favorably across the area. Light to moderate snow will continue across Western Oregon during this time, favoring areas from Bachelor south.

Lingering snow showers will eventually taper off across all of Oregon by early Friday morning.

Strong winds can be expected throughout Oregon on Wednesday, before decreasing on Thursday (but still remaining gusty). 

Snow Totals:

I'm expecting snow totals from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning to range from 15-30 inches throughout the Cascades with isolated higher amounts of 3 feet possible. Across Northeast Oregon, snow totals will range from 1-2 feet (including Anthony Lakes), while Warner Canyon in South Central Oregon should pick up 6-12 inches.

Wednesday will be a tough day due to high winds, poor visibility, possible lift closures, and poor travel conditions. Therefore, I would target Thursday for the best skiing conditions across the Cascades. If you're hiking for turns in NE Oregon (ski resorts there aren't open yet), then Friday will be the best bet, but beware of elevated avalanche concerns.

Following a lull in the action on Friday, another storm is possible in the Friday evening to Saturday evening timeframe. This storm could offer a nice refresher on the slopes with snow levels remaining low. 

Extended Forecast

The pattern may relax somewhat next week (December 5th-11th) in comparison to this week's deep storm cycle. However, an overall favorable pattern is expected to continue with the door remaining open for new storms on a frequent basis.

Also, temperatures are expected to remain below average, which should keep snow levels low for the most part. This is shaping up to be a great start to the season!

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Tuesday (11/29).

ALAN SMITH