Oregon Daily Snow
By Zach Butler, Meteorologist Posted 2 months ago November 27, 2023
The focus this week is on the storm system tracking into Oregon on Thursday or Friday, which will bring snow through the weekend. Confidence continues to grow of widespread snow accumulations through the mountains of Oregon, which could be enough for several resorts to open.
Mostly sunny and dry weather will continue at the start of this week. We will have to be patient ahead of the storm track returning to the Pacific Northwest on Thursday or Friday. While the confidence continues to grow of storms bringing snow in the forecast ahead, there is still uncertainty as to when the storm will arrive on Thursday or Friday.
Forecast on Thursday, Friday, and through the Weekend:
The Euro model still keeps precipitation coming in early on Thursday, November 30th while the GFS model keeps precipitation coming in on Friday, December 1st.
The good news is that since the previous forecast, both the Euro and GFS are showing good agreement on precipitation accumulations from this storm from Thursday through Sunday, December 3rd.
Below is a look at the Euro (left) and GFS (right) model’s predicted precipitation accumulations (inches) from Thursday, November 30th through Sunday, December 3rd.
There is remarkably good agreement this far out between these two models of 2-4 inches of precipitation in the Cascades and 1-2 inches in northeastern Oregon.
Snow levels this far out are still too early to say with confidence but early indications are for snow levels above 4,000 feet averaged out for the storm cycle. Snow levels will start higher on Friday, December 1st but lower throughout the storm cycle through the weekend.
With precipitation amounts above, this would mean a widespread 1-3 feet of snow. Below is a look at the Euro model's ensemble forecasted total snow accumulations. The red box highlights the storm time frame from Thursday, November 30th through Sunday, December 3rd.
The forecast is still close to a week away and things can change. That being said, there is remarkably good agreement between models of heavy snow coming to Oregon. Don't contain your excitement too much though...ski season is right around the corner.
Model indications show the storm track continuing to be active into the week of Monday, December 4th. There are also signs of warmer storms bringing sub-tropical moisture, which could raise snow levels significantly. I have low confidence in that this far out.
Below is a look at the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) probability outlook of temperatures (top) and precipitation (bottom) from Monday, December 4th through Sunday, December 10th.
While the forecast shows above-normal precipitation, there will also be above-normal temperatures, which would raise snow levels.
Thanks for reading and have a great start to your week. Next forecast is on Wednesday.
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