There is so much I want to talk about today.  First of all, let's talk about some snow deficits.  As you probably know, November has been bone dry so far in Utah.  After a snowy October, we've seen absolutely nothing since the calendar flipped.  Here is a list of the least snowy winters at Alta dating back to 1950: 

We are tied with 1967 for the least snowy year with 0.0 inches.  The other startling fact is that we've had 4-consecutive years that crack the top 15 least snow first halves of November.  For whatever reason, seasons seem to be starting later this decade.  

We should extend this streak thru at least November 19th, at which point we will take the lead as the only November to go the first 19 days without snow (since 1950).  If you're wondering, the record low snow for the entire month was 12 inches during the infamous 1976-77 season.  Right now, I would say we have a 50/50 chance of breaking that record.  

Forecast: 

The good news is that we do have snow to forecast.  A cut-off low will meander inland into SoCal and pull up lots of moisture into the desert southwest.  Arizona should see a good soaking late Tuesday thru Friday: 

The good news for us is that models have been trending a bit farther north with how far this moisture penetrates north.  Southern Utah, as you can see, gets plenty of moisture.  This is very welcome news because the southern half of Utah had a dry October as well.  In fact, St. George hasn't had measurable precipitation in a record 153 days! That will change by Wednesday.  

Of course, this southern Utah moisture translates to snow for the elevations above 8000 feet: 

Brian Head and Eagle Point will see the brunt of the moisture, but some of it could stream up into Northern Utah.  As of right now, our algorithms here at OpenSnow are portraying the following amounts: 

Obviously, the highest amounts are in southern Utah, but the Wasatch could see a few inches as well.  Generally I think 12-18" is a good bet for far southern Utah mountains will amounts dropping off considerably as you head north.  2-4" for the southern Wasatch, with maybe an inch or two north of I-80. 

While it's good that we are seeing some snow, I know most of us are itching for a major storm cycle that will get the lifts spinning and get powder in our faces again.  Well, we are seeing a pattern change.  Like I said earlier this week, a pattern change does NOT always mean storms.  In this case, it means weak storms, and hopefully we can eventually see stronger storms.  Let's take a look...

Here is the pattern today (November 17th): 

The big ridge of high pressure that has kept us dry all month remains.  You can see the low pressure system down by Baja California waiting to push into the SW US.  

Here is pattern by Thursday of this week: 

Notice the strong low is now funneling moisture up from the tropics into Arizona and Southern Utah.  

By early Thanksgiving week (November 26th), you can see that the low moves inland and weakens, but it's replaced by weak ridging off the coast: 

This is a bit of a change from earlier this week.  Earlier this week, the trough was farther west which would have been good for us.  That has shifted into the central plains for the week of Thanksgiving.  That leaves Utah, once again, on the edge between high pressure to our west and storms to our east.  This is a recipe for weak systems to just brush Northern Utah as they drop down along and east of the continental divide.  This is why I think we will only see weak storms thru Thanksgiving weekend.  

In December, we may see that ridge off the west coast start to be displaced again.  Model ensembles show a trough trying to form again along the west coast.  

At this point, this is 2+ weeks away and all we can do is hope that this will be the pattern that will finally bring us bigger, more consistent storms.  Until then, at least we aren't under dominant high pressure and will have chances for at least some snowfall.  I will keep you informed on any developments in our hunt for the storms! 

Evan | OpenSnow