Forecast for Wednesday 7/19 - Thursday 7/20

Rain will pick up later today (Wednesday), especially for the central and southern resorts. Temperatures are warm right now and will rise to 3 - 5 C for most resorts today. It will be even warmer tomorrow before things start to cool off, with more rain falling and temperatures climbing as high as 6 C at mid-mountain. It's frustrating to see these warm temperatures and rain after conditions have been gradually improving, but continue reading for some positive news.

Forecast for Friday 7/21 - Sunday 7/23

Thankfully, a cold front is expected on Thursday. Temperatures will gradually fall during the day, followed by a more rapid decline Thursday night. During this time, rain will transition to heavy snow. Check out the progression of the cold front below.

By Saturday afternoon, the cold front should have made it all the way to the northern resorts, although most of the moisture will have already fallen there. After the snow wraps up Sunday morning, things will warm up a bit leaving the potential for some sunny pow laps. 

I am still expecting some big snow totals once the transition to snow happens. The exact timing of the cold front will impact just how much snow falls at lower and mid-elevations. All models have backed off on snow totals to some degree, as they get a better handle on snow levels. They are still showing a wide range of accumulations, with two out of three major models showing a wide area of 1 - 1.5 m of snow. I think that's too high, given the warm temperatures. The European model is more conservative and seems to handle snow levels better than the American and Canadien models. Check out the snow forecast from the European model below.

 

The biggest snow totals should fall around Nevados de Chillan, Alto del Padre, Corralco, Las Araucarias, and Pucon, where 50 - 100 cms are possible. Those high-end totals could occur if the cold front arrives on the early end of the range.

Elsewhere, snow totals will vary significantly, and be very elevation dependant. Las Lenas, Chapa Verde, Antillanca, and Volcan Osorno should end up in the 25 - 50 cms range by Sunday. Due to elevation and the timing of the cold front, totals for the rest of the resorts should be in the 10 - 20 cm range. 

Generally, the heaviest snow will fall on Saturday, with some nasty conditions on the mountain. Heavy snow and strong winds will likely result in closures and impacts to resort operations as early as Friday. Plan accordingly.

Outlook for Monday 7/24 - Friday 7/28

Without much of a break, a weak storm is on tap for the northern resorts Monday through Tuesday. This doesn't look like more than a few cms for the northern resorts and temperatures will be on the warm side. For the rest of the week, the models disagree on the timing of the next storm. Sometime between Tuesday and Thursday, the next moderate event may begin. I know that's not a lot of helpful detail, but the models really disagree on the pattern for the middle and end of next week. I will have an update with hopefully more clear details on Friday.

Thanks for reading the South America daily snow! Follow me @lstone84 on Instagram to check out some new content I will be creating for the North American summer months.